The Iranian government is facing one of its most severe challenges in decades, with widespread protests driven by economic despair and a profound loss of legitimacy. The question now is whether this unrest will be enough to finally bring down the regime.
A Perfect Storm of Grievances
The current wave of dissent, which began in the market areas of Tehran last month, has roots in a severe economic crisis. The Iranian rial recently fell to a record low, causing sharp increases in the price of food and essentials. This has mobilised not only the poor but also Iran's important merchant class, turning a key pillar of support against the state.
Unlike previous uprisings, there is little sign these economic pressures will ease. The government has few tools to offer relief, creating a sustained and growing anger among the population. Protesters are facing severe crackdowns, but their numbers, reaching into the hundreds of thousands, suggest a deepening resolve.
A Shattered Social Contract
Compounding the economic pain is a monumental failure in national security that has humiliated the leadership. The recent 12-day war with Israel exposed critical weaknesses. Iran's rulers, who have long promised to defend the nation against what they call the 'little satan', saw Israeli warplanes operate with impunity in Iranian airspace, with the United States later joining in.
Scores of Iranian commanders were killed, and its nuclear programme was significantly damaged. Citizens are now asking where the billions sent abroad to proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthi rebels have gone, questioning why these funds weren't used to protect the homeland.
No Reform, No Future?
Conventional wisdom suggested the Islamic Republic was more likely to evolve from within than be overthrown. However, there is no sign of such internal reform happening. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is acutely aware that reform accelerated the fall of other regimes, notably the Soviet Union after Mikhail Gorbachev's changes.
Yet, he has offered no alternative solution. The regime's legitimacy, especially among the young who want the 'old men' of the revolution out of their lives, appears irreparably damaged. The government is now more exposed than at any point since the 1979 revolution.
The protests, echoing the 'woman, life, freedom' movement of three years ago but under far more dire circumstances, continue. If enough Iranians take to the streets for long enough, risking life and liberty, they may eventually get their way. The world watches to see if this is the beginning of another revolution.
