The Assassination of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi: A Symbol of Libya's Unresolved Turmoil
The violent death of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the second son of Libya's late dictator Muammar Gaddafi, serves as a stark reminder of the country's enduring instability. Shot dead by unidentified gunmen at his home in Zintan on Tuesday, this event highlights how Libya remains mired in conflict more than fifteen years after the fall of his father's regime.
A Populist Figure Threatening the Elite
Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, aged 53, had emerged as a significant political force, perceived by many as a populist alternative to the corrupt elites dominating both the eastern and western factions of Libya. His appeal tapped into a deep-seated nostalgia for a past era remembered as more secure, symbolised by his father's rule. The loyalist Gaddafi green movement continued to attract supporters longing for stability, making Saif a potent threat to the established governing classes.
His political office swiftly called for an impartial inquiry into his killing, casting doubt on the ability of the UN-backed government in Tripoli to conduct such an investigation. This underscores the fragile authority of Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, who clings to power despite being intended only as an interim leader under a UN process that has stalled, with elections repeatedly postponed.
Libya's Fractured Political Landscape
Libya remains sharply divided between an authoritarian east, led by warlord Khalifa Haftar's family, and the UN-recognised west, which struggles to project an image of moving beyond violence. Saif Gaddafi's unique position complicated this binary divide, as he did not align neatly with either side, thereby representing a challenge to both. One Libyan observer noted that Saif had cultivated a substantial constituency, with potential electoral support possibly surpassing that of Dbeibeh and Haftar, especially among voters who lack direct experience of his father's brutal regime.
The conspiracy theories surrounding his assassination gain intrigue from recent reports of rival camps meeting in Paris to discuss a unified approach to elections, facilitated by Donald Trump's adviser on Arab and African affairs, Massad Boulos. Any national unity deal would have faced the obstacle of Gaddafi's determination to stand as a third force, a stance that now leaves his supporters hailing him as a martyr.
Implications for International Justice
Saif Gaddafi's death also marks a setback for international justice, as he was the last individual with an outstanding arrest warrant at the International Criminal Court for violations during the 2011 uprising. Elham Saudi, director of Libyan Lawyers for Justice, expressed regret that this avenue for accountability is now closed, particularly on the 15th anniversary of the revolution, describing it as a sad day for victims seeking closure.
More sophisticated and western-oriented than his father, Saif often acted as a slick interlocutor with Western powers, negotiating Libya's abandonment of weapons of mass destruction and compensation for victims of the 1988 Lockerbie bombing. Educated in the West, he briefly charmed London academia, including the London School of Economics, which awarded him a PhD amid controversial funding ties to Libya.
From Revolution to Populist Resurgence
During the 2011 civil war, Saif unambiguously sided with his father, leading to his capture by Islamist forces as he attempted to flee to Niger. He was held for six years by a militia that ignored the ICC warrant before being released in a general amnesty in 2017. This marked the beginning of a third phase in his career, where he positioned himself as a populist alternative to corrupt elites.
In 2021, he attempted to run for president, appearing in tribal dress in Sabha to submit nomination papers. His message, conveyed in a rare interview with the New York Times, resonated with many Libyans frustrated by economic collapse and insecurity. He highlighted stark contrasts, such as exporting oil and gas to Italy while suffering blackouts at home, framing the situation as a fiasco.
Although his candidacy was blocked and the election process stalled, Saif Gaddafi paradoxically benefited from being silenced. Untainted by government corruption, he retained a mysterious allure, questioning in smuggled recordings why martyrs of the 2011 uprising now found themselves ruled by foreign ambassadors or UN envoys.
A Legacy That Continues to Shape Libya's Future
Now, with his death, the question of whether he could have won a presidential election remains unanswered. However, the investigation into his assassination, the identification of culprits, and how his life is memorialised will likely influence Libya's trajectory. Fifteen years after Muammar Gaddafi's demise, his shadow still looms large, with Saif's killing underscoring the deep-seated divisions and ongoing violence that plague the nation. The story of Libya remains one of unresolved conflict, where the past continually intrudes upon efforts to build a stable future.
