Welsh Labour, long regarded as the democratic world's most successful election-winning machine, is bracing for a historic defeat in next month's Senedd election. Having come first in Wales in every general election since 1922 and every devolved election since 1999, the party is expected to lose power after 27 years, triggering what senior sources describe as an 'existential' crisis over its identity and direction.
Collapse in Support and Rise of Rivals
The collapse of Labour support has created a vacuum, with former Labour voters migrating to opposite ends of the political spectrum. According to the latest YouGov polls, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are neck and neck, though coalition maths make it highly unlikely that Reform could form a government. The possibility of Labour losing power and Plaid Cymru entering government as a senior partner for the first time makes 'this election huge', said Laura McAllister, a professor of public policy at Cardiff University.
'I'm not sure people have computed yet how existential both those things simultaneously are going to be,' McAllister added.
Implications for UK Politics
Losing Wales after a century would be another blow to Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the wider Labour party, likely amplifying calls for his resignation. It would also mean separatist parties in office in all three devolved nations for the first time—Plaid Cymru in the Senedd, the SNP in Holyrood, and Sinn Féin in Stormont—presenting a constitutional challenge for whoever occupies No 10.
Welsh Labour, met with lacklustre receptions on the doorstep, is preparing for what one senior source described as a 'critical debate about what the party stands for' after the election. 'There will be those who try to defend 27 years in power, and attribute blame for a loss to the UK government or other factors,' they said. 'But you have to be humble in losing. You have to understand why you lost the public's trust and support and what needs to be done to stay relevant.'
Mixed Record in Office
Welsh Labour's record in office is mixed. Supporters insist the party protected public services from the impact of 14 years of Conservative government, austerity, Brexit, and the Covid pandemic. However, after 27 years of devolution, Wales has fallen behind other UK nations in several key metrics. About 20% of Welsh NHS patients wait more than a year for hospital treatment, compared with 4% in England. Welsh children's reading, maths, and science skills fell to the lowest OECD levels among the four nations in 2024, and the proportion of people in very deep poverty rose from 33% in the 1990s to 47% in 2023, according to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.
Campaign Challenges and Internal Divisions
Labour faces the tricky task of offering both stability and change, with the campaign slogan 'a new chapter'. Launching the party's Senedd manifesto, First Minister Eluned Morgan said: 'I think we've got to be honest about where people are. You've all heard it on the doorstep... People are right to hope for more, and I share your impatience. Your longing for change is my own.'
The scandal-plagued premiership of Vaughan Gething, who was first minister for just four months in 2024, damaged the party internally and repulsed voters. Starmer's election was expected to strengthen Welsh Labour as a 'partnership in power', but his unpopularity has weakened it instead. Starmer's name is not mentioned in the party's manifesto.
'Starmer's government has done more for Wales already than the Tories did in 14 years. But there's so much general anger at everything on the doorstep... Public expectation is harder than anything opposition can throw at you,' a Welsh Labour source said.
Electoral System Blowback
At least one of Welsh Labour's anticipated election woes is of its own making. In 2022, the special purpose committee on Senedd reform laid out several more proportional voting methods as options for 2026. Labour chose the closed-list D'Hondt method, which favours larger parties and lets voters choose parties rather than individual candidates. Prof Richard Wyn Jones of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre said: 'There's a huge irony that it was Labour's choice to have this system. If they'd gone for STV or the other options on offer, they would have done better. It appears no one in the Welsh parliamentary Labour party ever imagined they could be a small party.'
The new system creates 16 super-constituencies, each electing six members, making results hard to predict. The latest YouGov poll suggests Labour will finish third with 13% of the vote, translating into just 12 seats in a parliament growing from 60 to 96 members.
Coalition Scenarios and Future Direction
Plaid Cymru may be the only party able to form a government, as Reform could win the most seats but Labour and Plaid have ruled out coalition with Farage's party. However, a YouGov poll this week put Plaid on 36 seats, down seven, making a Labour coalition partner more likely. McAllister said there was 'no value' for Labour in becoming a junior partner, as it would be seen as 'Plaid's helpers'.
For many in the party, the glory days of the late 1990s, when New Labour opened the door to devolution and Rhodri Morgan led Wales into a new millennium, feel distant. Rhodri Morgan's decision to rebrand Labour as Welsh Labour, distinct and more progressive than UK Labour, successfully stopped soft-nationalist voters from embracing Plaid Cymru. However, after almost 30 years, the 'clear red water' approach appeals less to voters who take devolution for granted and increasingly identify as more Welsh than British.
'I don't think it has to be binary, are you Welsh or are you British,' said a third senior Labour source. 'Labour delivered devolution and Labour got Wales the powers it has today. I know there's a big chunk of people toying with the idea of voting for Plaid Cymru but there are also still people out there that know Labour is loyal to Wales.'
