Nebraska Democrats are optimistic about flipping Republican seats in the right-leaning Plains state, but their prospects hinge on today's Democratic primaries, which have been marred by accusations of planted candidates and strategic dilemmas that could inadvertently weaken Democratic power.
Second Congressional District: The 'Blue Dot' Battle
A crowded Democratic primary in Nebraska's second congressional district, known as the 'blue dot,' has centered on fears that a state senator's victory could allow the Republican governor to replace him with a Republican, potentially overturning the state's unique electoral college vote system. The district, which includes Omaha, is a top target for Democrats as they seek to regain control of the US House of Representatives in a midterm cycle expected to challenge Republicans.
Unlike most states, Nebraska awards one electoral college vote per congressional district. Democrats have won the second district's vote in three of the last five presidential elections, including for Kamala Harris in 2024. The current representative, Republican Don Bacon, announced he would not seek re-election, creating an open seat that the Cook Political Report rates as leaning Democratic. 'It hasn't been this competitive in over a generation,' said Randy Adkins, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha.
Republicans have a single candidate, Omaha city council member Brinker Harding. Six Democrats are vying for the nomination, with three leading contenders: state senator John Cavanaugh, political organizer Denise Powell, and county clerk Crystal Rhoades. Cavanaugh has topped polls, but Powell has attracted significant outside funding, while Rhoades brings a decade of local government experience.
The Republican effort to switch Nebraska to a winner-take-all electoral college system failed by two votes in 2025. If Cavanaugh wins the general election, Governor Jim Pillen would appoint his replacement, potentially giving Republicans the numbers to eliminate the 'blue dot.' This issue has dominated the primary, with Powell and Rhoades criticizing Cavanaugh repeatedly.
Senate Primary: Independent Candidate Dominates
Democrats' best chance to unseat Republican Senator Pete Ricketts lies with independent candidate Dan Osborn, who lost the 2024 race by six points to Deb Fischer. Osborn is not running in the Democratic primary, but his presence looms large. The primary features Cindy Burbank, a retired pharmacy technician, and William Forbes, a pastor who opposes abortion access and voted for Trump. Burbank has pledged to drop out if she wins, clearing the path for Osborn to face Ricketts. 'I will stay in until it is obvious that I cannot win in November, and I will drop out,' she told the New York Times.
Forbes faces accusations of being a Ricketts plant designed to siphon votes from Osborn. Burbank's campaign website claims Ricketts 'knows he's losing to Osborn' and is running a 'fake Democrat.' The Ricketts campaign denies this. Nebraska Democratic Party chair Jane Kleeb tweeted, 'This is why Ricketts put a plant into the Dem primary... Vote for Cindy Burbank for US Senate so Ricketts candidate doesn't advance.' The state party has endorsed Burbank for the primary and Osborn for the general election.
