Labour MPs Brace for May Elections as Budget Fails to Shift Fundamentals
Senior Labour figures have confirmed that Sir Keir Starmer's position as party leader remains secure until at least the May elections, despite growing concerns that the recent budget failed to address the core challenges facing the party. More than a dozen previously loyal MPs have expressed doubts that the financial measures announced will be sufficient to overcome the threat from Reform UK.
One minister starkly warned that the budget "only delays what is inevitable," highlighting the persistent concerns within parliamentary ranks about the party's direction and electoral prospects.
Post-Budget Peace Offering Fails to Calm Nerves
In the aftermath of the budget announcement, senior cabinet members engaged in what insiders described as a "tacit declaration of peace" following weeks of internal tension. Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Prime Minister's chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, were among those seen making rounds in the Commons to reassure concerned MPs.
The outreach campaign began even before the budget, with Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves conducting individual meetings with over 100 MPs and personally name-checking many during her budget speech. One MP described the approach as being "love bombed," with numerous backbenchers receiving photo opportunities and invitations to Chequers.
However, the charm offensive appears to have done little to address fundamental concerns. The same MP cautioned that "the budget doesn't change the fundamentals that they are one crap decision away from catastrophe."
Right Wing Unnerved by Budget Direction
MPs from the party's right wing expressed particular unease about the budget's focus, with one criticising it for being "focused on the bond markets and the backbenches" rather than ordinary voters. They highlighted concerns about squeezed household incomes resulting from measures including additional headroom requirements, welfare U-turns, and the maintained two-child benefit cap.
A senior Labour figure assessed the situation bluntly: "It's a tactical victory, the political and economic trends are all still heading in the wrong direction and it's not going to turn any of that around." They added that the budget lacked a coherent wider economic or political narrative beyond mere survival.
The same source suggested that leadership challenges remain a possibility, stating: "I don't think it kills challenges stone dead. And it would be better to try to find a way to do it before May."
Leadership Speculation Intensifies Amid Internal Maneuvering
Wes Streeting has vigorously denied any involvement in leadership plotting, though observers note his recent public defence of key soft-left figures including Lucy Powell, the new deputy leader with whom he had previously clashed. His public praise for Angela Rayner, considered his main potential rival in any future contest, has sparked rumours of a potential political pact.
Frontbenchers suggest that in any leadership contest, Streeting would likely attempt to broaden his appeal to the party's left, having taken more outspoken positions on anti-racism, Gaza, and strategies to counter Reform UK. Analysts believe both Streeting and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood could potentially secure the required support of 80 MPs to enter any future contest.
Meanwhile, the revived Tribune group of soft-left MPs, led by former cabinet minister Louise Haigh and former whip Vicky Foxcroft, has welcomed aspects of the budget while indicating their future focus will shift towards living standards concerns.
May Elections Loom as Critical Test
Downing Street insiders recognise that the upcoming May local elections represent a potentially greater threat to the Prime Minister's leadership than the budget. One senior figure described the local elections as "perilous" compared to the merely "dangerous" budget period.
Preparations are already underway in Number 10, led by Spencer Livermore - who previously managed Ed Miliband's 2015 leadership campaign - to mitigate expected poor results. There are widespread fears that Labour could suffer significant losses across England, including in London, while potentially losing Wales to Reform UK and slipping to third place behind the SNP and Reform in Scotland.
The strategy appears focused on finding positive narratives amidst anticipated poor results. "We've got to have enough of a story to talk about a win, even if the results overall are terrible," explained one Downing Street source. They suggested highlighting areas where Labour performs well against the Greens or Reform UK to argue for a potential national recovery path.
However, MPs in Wales and Scotland remain sceptical about this approach. One Scottish MP expressed concern that Morgan McSweeney appears "more positive than most about how we'll do north of the border" despite worrying polling data. They emphasised the need to focus elections on Scottish leadership and public service transformation rather than voters' opinions of Keir Starmer, warning: "otherwise we're stuffed."
