Labour Leadership Crisis Deepens After Botched Briefing
The Labour party is engulfed in a profound leadership crisis after efforts by Keir Starmer's allies to strengthen his position spectacularly backfired. Instead of demonstrating strength, a poorly executed briefing operation on Tuesday night exposed the Prime Minister's vulnerability, convincing many MPs that he leads an ineffectual Number 10 operation heading for significant defeats in upcoming Scottish, Welsh, and English local council elections.
The Backfired Strategy and Growing Unrest
Allies of the Prime Minister attempted to shore up his position by briefing journalists that he would confront any leadership challenge and accusing Health Secretary Wes Streeting of leading an advanced plot to overthrow him. This move had the opposite effect, solidifying the view among MPs from various factions that Starmer's leadership is untenable. The botched operation revealed a panicked Downing Street, a perception reinforced on Friday when carefully trailed plans to increase income tax in the budget were abruptly abandoned.
One minister revealed the extent of the discontent, stating, "MPs from a whole bunch of factions and camps, many once loyal, are all now talking with each other, they all think Keir is done, and are prepared to take risks together to get a more talented alternative." This coordinated resolve among parliamentarians signals a serious threat to Starmer's authority.
The Contenders: A Crowded Field of Successors
While there is growing consensus that a change is necessary, the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) is divided over who should replace Starmer. The field of potential candidates is crowded and actively jostling for position.
Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, has long been viewed as the favourite within Number 10, enjoying preferential treatment from key figures like Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney. However, Streeting has recently tacked left on several issues, including advocating for the recognition of Palestine in cabinet and publicly endorsing the return of Angela Rayner to government.
Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, is another frequently cited candidate. Though her allies strongly deny any formal alliance with McSweeney, she has been hosting regular dinners for MPs and is understood to have supporters running a discreet campaign to promote her leadership chances.
The potential return of Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, looms large over the contest. An ally confirmed Burnham is "minded to make a comeback," possibly through a job swap with Oldham MP Jim McMahon to re-enter the Commons. This prospect has reportedly instilled a sense of urgency in other contenders, who fear the field could become much more competitive.
The soft left of the PLP remains a significant force, though currently leaderless following Angela Rayner's resignation. Most MPs believe Rayner would run in a contest held after the May elections, giving her time for political rehabilitation. YouGov polling suggests she would be a formidable opponent, beating Streeting decisively among party members. Those close to her, however, deny she is currently running any campaign.
Polling and Public Perception
The government's deep unpopularity is dragging down the favourability ratings of the entire cabinet. Recent YouGov data shows negative net scores for all potential successors:
- Wes Streeting: -19
- Shabana Mahmood: -20
- Yvette Cooper: -24
- Angela Rayner: -40
- Keir Starmer: -51
Patrick English, Director of Political Analytics at YouGov, noted that for all figures except Starmer, there remains a high degree of public uncertainty, with many voters yet to form a firm opinion.
Among Labour party members, who would ultimately decide the leader, the dynamics shift considerably. While Streeting would beat Mahmood, he would lose heavily to Rayner. Andy Burnham, however, stands out as the one figure who comfortably defeats all others in head-to-head matchups and maintains a net positive public favourability rating of +2.
With the budget looming and the May elections approaching, the pressure on Keir Starmer is immense. As one Labour MP loyal to the Prime Minister conceded, "Things have advanced so far down the track already it's not easy to see how No 10 can clamp down on it." The party appears to be bracing for a period of intense internal turmoil.
