In Highgate New Town, a north London housing estate known for its brutalist architecture, the scale of the challenge Labour faces from the Green Party is starkly evident. Cynthia Boampong, a council tenant and former London bus driver, said, "I've always voted Labour. My entire family has, but it feels like a time for a change." She opened her door to Lorna Jane Russell, currently the only Green member on Camden Council, who could return after 7 May at the head of a larger group.
Green Surge Across London
Support for Zack Polanski's Green Party is expected to surge across the capital. Nearby Hackney Council is tipped to become a center of progressive voter realignment, with polling suggesting the Greens could take the mayoralty and become the largest party. Labour strongholds such as Lambeth and Lewisham are also under pressure. Camden, a diverse borough with affluent neighborhoods and pockets of deprivation, carries particular symbolism as it is home to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's constituency of Holborn and St Pancras.
Labour Activists Face Unpopularity
Labour activists report being regularly confronted with Starmer's unpopularity on doorsteps. One activist confessed to being taken aback by the sometimes "visceral" attitude. They also face anti-incumbent sentiment and local concerns. Boampong cited a lack of food recycling bins and the council's failure to address a leaking boiler. "I did tell Labour, who were here earlier, that they had lost four votes in this home," she said.
Grassroots Efforts and Local Issues
Russell, a former Labour councillor, said the "Zack bounce" helped the party, but the Greens are also benefiting from grassroots efforts championing local concerns, such as housing maintenance problems and wider issues like Gaza. "We've been clear about standing up for peace and human rights, including speaking out on Gaza. But Muslim households are often just as concerned about day-to-day realities like overcrowding, damp, and mould," she said. "I can't stop a genocide on my own, but I can make a real difference here by tackling those problems."
Fragmentation of Progressive Vote
A wider fragmentation of the progressive vote across London is reflected in Camden, where the Greens, Liberal Democrats, Labour, and independent candidates are contesting control. Labour holds 45 of 55 seats, but a uniform swing of 19% could cost them their majority. The rise of the Greens in inner London has alarmed Labour more than Reform UK's prospects in Havering and Bexley. The capital's 59 Labour MPs, including cabinet ministers, have been used to safe majorities, but local elections suggest change is coming.
Labour's Lowest Vote Share
Polling for More in Common indicates Labour's vote share in London has fallen 15 points since 2024, while the Conservatives are down four points. Smaller parties have seized this support: Green support is up 10 points, and Reform UK is up six points. The Liberal Democrats are the only traditional party avoiding the mainstream fate, holding comfortable leads in southwest London and challenging Labour in Merton. Labour is on course for its lowest ever vote share in London, worse than Harold Wilson's 28.3% in 1968.
Impact on Starmer and Future Elections
Prof Tony Travers of the LSE noted that stitching together governing coalitions could hint at what might happen at the next general election. With 1,150 of the 2,500 council seats Labour defends in the capital, the elections will test whether the party can hold safe areas under Starmer. If MPs conclude not, more may join those agitating for change. In Camden, Labour council leader Richard Olszewski has switched to a different seat, which opponents deride as a "chicken run," because he would not have time to defend his previous one from the Lib Dems.
Olszewski conceded Labour faces a huge challenge, noting the party lost Camden in the late 1960s and after the Iraq war. "We're not immune to national dynamics," he said. "On doorsteps, we encounter voters critical of Keir Starmer, but we point out he isn't standing here. It's about who runs the council, and we have outstanding ratings for our services." Labour hopes that will be enough.
