Peter Dutton has achieved an unwanted political distinction, being branded the most unpopular major party leader in Australia since 1987 according to the definitive Australian Electoral Study.
Historic Unpopularity and Leadership Deficits
The comprehensive research conducted by Australian National University and Griffith University academics revealed that Dutton's unpopularity broke several records following the federal election. The study's co-author, Professor Ian McAllister, emphasised the unprecedented nature of these findings.
Voters identified significant shortcomings in Dutton's leadership qualities, with inspiration and compassion being the most notable absences. The research found that merely 8% of voters believed Dutton outperformed Anthony Albanese in leaders' debates, representing the lowest figure ever recorded in the study's history.
Economic Policy Reversal Proves Costly
The Coalition's traditional advantage on economic management, maintained for nearly four decades, collapsed dramatically after Dutton's decision to oppose tax cuts. Labor gained a 4 percentage point lead over the Coalition on economic management, marking a significant shift in voter perception.
Household cost-of-living pressures combined with the Coalition's pledge to reverse Labor's $17bn legislated tax cuts contributed substantially to the election outcome. The tax cuts, passed by parliament in March, were designed to benefit taxpayers by $5 weekly from next year, increasing to $10 from 2027.
Dutton described the plan as a cruel hoax and campaigned on providing a one-off $1,200 tax cut to middle-income earners in 2026 if elected. Meanwhile, Labor swiftly announced an automatic $1,000 tax deduction for voters.
Gender Gap and Electoral Volatility
The study uncovered a record-breaking gender gap in voting patterns, with the Coalition attracting nearly 10% fewer women voters than men. Conversely, Labor secured more support from women than men, though the gender gap at 5% was approximately half the size of the Coalition's.
Political volatility reached new heights, with 25% of voters reporting no attachment to any Australian political party in 2025. The proportion of voters who consistently support the same party plummeted to its lowest ever level at 34%.
Professor McAllister noted these findings indicate a fundamentally changed electorate, stating they are clear indicators of a more volatile electorate who are no longer attached to the two major parties.
The research also highlighted declining confidence in international alliances, with trust that the US would defend Australia under President Donald Trump falling to 55%, down significantly from 73% in 2022.
