New research using cell phone activity data reveals that Canadian visits to major US metropolitan areas have plummeted by 42% during the second Trump administration, a figure significantly higher than official border-crossing estimates. The findings suggest Canadians are deliberately avoiding US cities, driven by political tensions and economic uncertainties.
Research Methodology
Researchers at the University of Toronto developed a tracking tool that analyzed Canadian mobile devices traveling to US metro areas between April 1, 2024, and March 31, 2026. The tool captured a year-over-year median decline of approximately 42% in Canadian visits to US metropolitan areas, compared to a roughly 25% decline reported in official border-crossing data.
Key Findings
The decline was not limited to border towns but extended to major tourist destinations such as Las Vegas, Walt Disney World, and winter recreation areas in Florida. Even states like New York, New Hampshire, and Vermont saw steep drops. The researchers noted that cell phone data also captured freight traffic and Canadians previously living in the US who may have returned home, which could explain the discrepancy with official figures.
Economic Impact
US border towns reliant on Canadian traffic have been hit hard. Karen Chapple, director of the School of Cities at the University of Toronto and a co-author of the report, highlighted the decline in travel to Grand Rapids, Michigan, a city with deep economic ties to Ontario's auto industry. "There used to be a lot of back and forth between the two places for work purposes," Chapple said, but US tariffs on Canadian goods, including vehicles, have reduced cross-border business travel.
Broader Trends
The researchers observed that high-tech and financial centers like San Francisco and Houston experienced reductions not only in tourism but also in business-related travel. This reflects changing preferences due to economic uncertainties on both sides of the border. Additionally, the data may indicate return migration to Canada, as it includes Canadians living temporarily in the US.
Official Data
Canadian government data shows that Canadian-resident return trips from the US were down 25% in 2025, while US resident trips to Canada decreased by 7.5%. The new cell phone tool provides a more granular view, revealing a sharper decline in visits to urban centers.
