New official figures are set to reveal a dramatic fall in net migration to the United Kingdom, bringing numbers down to levels not seen since before the Brexit referendum, according to analysis from the thinktank British Future.
The data predicts that net migration will drop to approximately 300,000, a figure that represents less than a third of the record 944,000 peak recorded in the year to March 2023. This significant decline, however, is being lost on the British public, with most citizens incorrectly believing that immigration has increased.
The Gap Between Perception and Reality
Despite the sharp downward trend, research published by Ipsos and British Future highlights a stark disconnect between statistical reality and public belief. The study found that only 16% of the public expects net migration to be lower in a year's time.
In a telling contrast, more than twice as many people—38%—anticipate that immigration numbers will actually rise. Perhaps most strikingly, 56% of the public believes that net migration increased last year, when in fact the numbers had halved.
Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, commented on this paradox, stating, "Net migration is falling, with today’s figures likely to show another drop towards pre-Brexit levels of around 300,000 – yet our political debate hasn’t caught up."
Revised Figures and Methodology
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently updated its estimates using a new methodology that provides a more accurate count of British nationals leaving the country. This revision showed a higher and earlier peak in net migration of 944,000 in the year to March 2023, up from a previous estimate of 906,000 for the year to June 2023.
These updated calculations also indicate that cumulative net migration from 2021 to 2024 was roughly 97,000 lower than previously thought. The ONS now estimates that net migration had already fallen to 345,000 in the year to December 2024, driven by an increase in emigration by UK nationals.
By examining UK visa data, British Future projects that this downward trend will continue, with figures expected to fall further towards the 300,000 mark.
Public Dissatisfaction and Policy Proposals
This gap between fact and perception appears to be fuelling public discontent. Dissatisfaction with the government's handling of immigration has risen to 56%, up from 48% last summer.
Among those who are dissatisfied, the most common reason cited—by 73% of respondents—was that "the government is not doing enough to stop migrant channel crossings." Other top reasons included perceptions that the government is "too generous to migrants/asylum seekers" (65%) and is "allowing too many people to claim asylum in Britain" (63%).
Interestingly, government proposals released last week outlining restrictions on settlement and benefits for migrants are more restrictive than what most of the public would choose. The research found that:
- 50% think migrants in graduate-level jobs should wait five years or less for settlement.
- 53% believe those in mid-skilled jobs should wait less than ten years.
Katwala warned of the risks for the current government, noting, "The risk for Keir Starmer’s government, which is promising to get a grip on numbers, is that constant crisis messaging only reinforces the public belief that asylum and immigration are out of control."
The release of the official migration figures comes hours after it emerged that the Home Office will need to spend an additional £1.4 billion due to a near 20% rise in small boat arrivals and an 8% increase in asylum seekers in supported accommodation, according to an OBR document released ahead of the budget.
