Millions of Britons head to the polls today in local and parliamentary elections that could reshape the political landscape. From the Scottish Highlands to the Isle of Wight, voters will elect councillors and representatives, with bin collections, road maintenance, and community services officially on the ballot. However, commentators expect a political earthquake, potentially ending the two-party system and calling into question the survival of Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Five Key Storylines for Today's Elections
Labour Under Siege
Labour faces a potential rout, with polls suggesting it could lose over 1,800 council seats—75% of those it is defending. Losses are expected in traditional heartlands like Wales, northern England, and London, with challenges from Reform UK in former 'red wall' areas and the Greens in cities like Newcastle and London. Jessica Elgot, the Guardian's deputy political editor, warns that losing councils such as Barnsley, Hackney, and Sunderland would be 'traumatising' for Labour. If results are dire, rivals like Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner may move to dethrone Starmer as soon as the weekend.
Devolution and Nationalist Surge
The UK could see nationalist leaders in all devolved administrations. Plaid Cymru is expected to become the largest party in Wales, ending three decades of Labour dominance. Bethan McKernan, the Guardian's Wales correspondent, says a Welsh nationalist victory would put an independence referendum on the horizon. Plaid Cymru faces a tight race with Reform UK under the new proportional voting system. In Scotland, the SNP is predicted to win a fifth term, despite scandals and a patchy record. Libby Brooks, the Scotland correspondent, notes this is the least predictable Holyrood election in a decade, with high undecided rates and turnout key.
Reform UK's Momentum
Nigel Farage's Reform UK is expected to make major gains, sweeping aside the Conservatives as the main right-wing party and eating into Labour heartlands. The party has professionalised its operations with a voter-targeting app. However, polls suggest its support may have plateaued. Ben Quinn, who has followed Farage on the campaign trail, says the election will test whether Reform can maintain momentum.
Greens' First Major Test
The Greens, led by Zack Polanski, are predicted to gain nearly 500 councillors. Polanski's eco-populism message faces its first major test, particularly outside London. Peter Walker, the Guardian's senior political correspondent, says the Greens need to win widely to supplant Labour.
Liberal Democrats' Quiet Rise
The Lib Dems, who won a record 72 MPs in 2024, could become the largest party in English local government. They are expected to make gains for an eighth consecutive year, potentially in the hundreds, spanning ex-Tory 'blue wall' areas and Labour retreats like Birmingham and Preston.
Other Headlines
Nigel Farage's income since becoming an MP has reached £2 million on top of his parliamentary salary. A federal judge unsealed an alleged suicide note by Jeffrey Epstein. Fertiliser shortages from the Iran war have driven up UK farming costs by 70%, impacting global food prices. Three people with suspected hantavirus, including a British guide, were evacuated from a cruise ship. The UAE royal family benefits from EU subsidies for crops destined for the Gulf.
What to Watch
Results will trickle in Friday and into the weekend, as many councils do not count overnight. Early wins and losses will dominate Friday's news, but many English councils will not report until teatime. Wales and Scotland also count later on Friday.
