Republican candidates backed by Donald Trump generally performed well, or advanced, in primary contests on Tuesday. The president's allies are in danger of scraping false hope from the victory in Kentucky's fourth congressional district, where Trump critic Thomas Massie was ousted after nearly 14 years in office.
Massie's Defeat: A Sign of Trump's Grip
Massie lost the most expensive House primary in history to Ed Gallrein, a farmer and former Navy Seal endorsed by Trump. The race featured an AI-generated attack ad accusing Massie of dining with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar. Steven Cheung, the White House communications director, posted on X: "Do not ever doubt President Trump and his political power. Fuck around, find out."
But Trump commands fierce loyalty from a base that is shrinking. He is like a cult leader whose commune keeps getting smaller while the devotion inside grows more intense. A New York Times/Siena poll released Monday shows Trump's approval rating within the Republican party at 82%, but his overall approval rating has fallen to 37%, the lowest of either term.
The Trump Trap: Primary Wins, General Election Losses
Nearly two in three voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy and his decision to wage war on Iran. Democrats lead Republicans 50%-39% on the generic congressional ballot. This suggests the Republican party is ever more out of whack with the country at large.
Chris Hayes, a political commentator, told viewers: "As the coalition collapses at large, the intensity of who's left only grows, which means Trump's control of that faction – increasingly a rump faction in American politics – is expanding, at the same time that his grip on the country is withering."
Elizabeth Warren, a Democratic senator, added: "It's a tighter and tighter hold on a smaller and smaller group."
Other Primary Results and Trump's Revenge Tour
Trump also secured the downfall of several Indiana state senators who defied him on redistricting, and of Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy, who voted for Trump's conviction at his January 6 impeachment trial. In Kentucky, Republicans chose Andy Barr, endorsed by Trump, as their Senate nominee to replace Mitch McConnell.
The next test of Trump's strength comes in Texas, where he endorsed Ken Paxton over incumbent John Cornyn for an upcoming Senate primary. Paxton, an extremist with heavy baggage, is considered vulnerable to defeat by Democrat James Talarico.
Forget the Thucydides Trap. This is the Trump Trap: a self-tightening knot in which Republicans must depend on him to win primaries, only to be doomed by him in general elections. Tuesday night proved he rules supreme in Maga-land. But that is only minority rule in America.
