Prime Minister Keir Starmer has made a last-ditch appeal to voters as Labour braces for potentially record-breaking losses in Thursday's local elections in England, which could prove decisive for his political future.
Starmer's Final Pitch
In a statement released on election day, Starmer argued that Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and Green Party co-leader Zack Polanski are "not fit to meet this moment of great global instability," asserting that only Labour prioritises the national interest. He urged voters to choose "progress and a better future" with Labour councils working alongside a Labour government, rather than the "anger and division" of Reform or the "empty promises" of the Greens.
Starmer pledged to always stand up for families and never waver from acting in Britain's national interest, regardless of political pressure.
Dire Predictions for Labour
Labour MPs have told the Guardian that losing more than 1,500 council seats would be an existential threat to the party. However, polling experts predict significantly worse results. Professor Stephen Fisher of the University of Oxford forecasts Labour could lose over 75% of its seats, approximately 1,900 councils. Reform is expected to win historically Labour strongholds such as Barnsley and Sunderland, while the SNP appears poised for a fifth consecutive victory in the Scottish Parliament elections.
Scottish and Welsh Elections
YouGov's final MRP model for the 2026 Holyrood election suggests the SNP will fall just short of a majority, likely requiring a coalition with the pro-independence Scottish Greens. Labour is tied for second place with Reform and the Greens in most polls and is predicted to lose five of its MSPs. In Wales, Labour is on course to lose power to Plaid Cymru, recording its worst ever result in the Senedd elections.
Leadership Challenges Loom
The peril for Starmer could intensify if Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan, who may lose her seat, calls for his resignation following the election. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has already done so in February. MPs hoping for a leadership change believe regional mayors and council leaders, including Greater Manchester's Andy Burnham and London Mayor Sadiq Khan, might join calls for a new prime minister, though allies say an immediate resignation demand is unlikely.
However, Starmer's position may be protected by left-wing MPs who prefer Burnham to return to the Commons before a challenge. Other potential contenders, such as Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner, are reportedly unwilling to be the first to challenge Starmer.
Future Direction
Starmer is reportedly considering outlining the next steps for the government before the King's Speech next Wednesday. Over the coming days, MPs across the party will aim to shape the narrative for the months ahead, with some calling for a more radical economic vision. On Tuesday, the centrist Labour Growth Group will launch a report titled "An Honest Day – A New Economic Settlement for Britain," advocating stronger government action on living standards, housing, regulation, investment, and state capacity.
Public research for the report indicates that many voters leaving Labour for the Greens and Reform favour a more radical approach to what they see as deep structural problems. A source from the group stated: "The message tomorrow will be the same one the country has been sending for years. People keep working harder for less, watching the basics of a decent life slip out of reach and thinking 'this system isn't built for me.' The scale of the results will show how impatient voters are now. The question afterwards is whether we are finally prepared to face up to it and confront what's gone wrong. If we aren't, we will lose this country to the populists for a generation."
