Keir Starmer may have dodged the axe for now, but the local election results paint a troubling picture of a Britain more fragmented than ever. While Labour losses were not as catastrophic as feared, the writing is on the wall for traditional politics.
Starmer's Temporary Reprieve
Despite expectations of losing up to 2,000 council seats in England, Labour's actual losses were lower, allowing Starmer to fend off immediate calls for resignation. However, even his allies admit he is unlikely to lead the party into the next general election. They argue for more time, pointing to defeats of Reform UK in areas like Tameside and Wigan, which undermine potential challenger Andy Burnham.
Starmer's team warns against repeating the Tory pattern of regicide, noting that voters punished Conservative infighting. They also claim that ousting Starmer would trigger demands for a snap election, which a hostile press would not allow.
The Depth of Unpopularity
Despite a reprieve, Starmer remains deeply unpopular. Canvassers report intense loathing on doorsteps, disproportionate to his actions. Critics concede his unpopularity rivals that of Tony Blair at his worst or Liz Truss. His poor communication and decisions, like cutting winter fuel allowance and appointing Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, have fueled discontent.
A Last Chance for Reset
Starmer is expected to deliver a major speech on Monday, with calls for a bold reset. Many urge a move toward Europe, acknowledging Brexit as a costly error. Advocates argue that re-engaging with the EU is urgent for economic and security reasons, and it could unite Labour's fragmented coalition.
Wales and Scotland: Historic Losses
Labour lost its century-long dominance in Wales, reduced to a handful of seats. In Scotland, the party again lost to the SNP, which has held power for 19 years. Reform UK made gains in both nations, shocking observers.
Reform UK's Rise and the Fragmented Union
Nigel Farage's Reform UK poses a broader threat, winning seats across England and competing in Wales and Scotland. Labour risks misinterpreting these losses as a need to shift right, when in fact it is losing votes to the Greens and Lib Dems, allowing Reform to win through a split left.
This fragmentation reflects a national trend: Britain is not immune to nationalist populism. The old two-party system is dying, replaced by a seven-party landscape. Three of four UK nations are led by first ministers favoring breakup, making a unified platform nearly impossible.
As Jonathan Freedland notes, the question of who governs Britain may soon become whether Britain is governable at all.
