The Scottish National Party (SNP) is predicted to secure a fifth consecutive term at Holyrood, albeit with a significantly reduced vote share, according to opinion polls. The emergence of Reform UK has dramatically altered the dynamics of the election campaign, forcing established parties to adjust their strategies. However, economists at the independent Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) have accused all major parties of engaging in a collective bout of fiscal denial, as none have adequately addressed an estimated £5 billion hole in Scottish government finances by the end of the decade.
SNP
The SNP's most eye-catching pledge involves capping supermarket prices on essential goods such as bread and milk. Retailers have dismissed this as a 'potty gimmick,' and constitutional academics question whether the Scottish parliament possesses the legal authority to implement such a measure. The manifesto also includes a £100 million first-homes fund, offering up to £10,000 toward deposits for first-time buyers, plans to cap all bus fares at £2, and expanded subsidized childcare based on family income. The FAI highlighted several billion pounds' worth of unfunded pledges, even as SNP leader John Swinney committed to not increasing income tax bands or rates during the next parliament. The manifesto emphasizes the benefits of independence but offers no mechanism to achieve it given Westminster's consistent opposition.
Reform UK
Reform UK's Scotland leader, millionaire financier Malcolm Offord, promised to 'make Scotland the most successful part of the UK.' However, the Institute for Fiscal Studies panned the party's tax and spending plans as 'not fiscally credible.' The manifesto proposes scrapping Scotland's six-band income tax system and realigning it with the UK's three bands, cutting 1p below each. This immediate £2 billion cut would be funded by £1 billion currently spent on 'ideological net zero projects' and the 'bloated £6.5 billion spent on 132 unaccountable quangos.' The party, which has benefited from Tory councillor defections in the north-east and Aberdeen—where the transition from oil and gas is a critical voter priority—pledges to abolish all SNP net zero-related targets, subsidies, and quangos.
Scottish Labour
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, under pressure, pledged more homes, tax cuts, and a smaller public sector, asking voters for five years 'to fix the Scottish National party’s mess.' Facing heavy competition on the centre-left and seeing the Conservatives tack right to compete with Reform UK, Labour has shifted its economic policies to the centre. Sarwar offered a reduction in income tax for middle earners—who pay significantly higher marginal rates in Scotland—when finances allow, along with cutting business rates. Notably, Sarwar made no reference to Keir Starmer or UK policies at the manifesto launch. Insiders attribute declining support—recent polls place Labour behind the SNP and Reform—to repeated Westminster failures. Sarwar himself called for Starmer to step down in February amid the Peter Mandelson-Jeffrey Epstein scandal.
Scottish Greens
The Scottish Greens have called for free bus travel, thousands of extra teachers and doctors, and a universal basic income, among hundreds of uncosted manifesto pledges. The party is enjoying a bounce in Scottish opinion polls, with some surveys placing it ahead of Labour, partly driven by surging support for the Green Party of England and Wales under Zack Polanski. Some pundits believe the Scottish Greens are on the brink of winning their first constituency seats at Holyrood. The manifesto has been criticized for lacking costings, but the party says it would be funded by new taxes on the wealthy and large companies.
Scottish Liberal Democrats
The Liberal Democrats are buoyant, with polls predicting their best Holyrood results in years, targeting 10 constituencies and hoping to win big on the regional ballot. Given the election's unpredictability, the party could potentially keep the SNP out of power through a deal with Labour. Leader Alex Cole-Hamilton described their manifesto as 'serious, deliverable, and we know how to pay for it.' It avoids big tax cuts, focusing instead on improving existing provision, likely with an eye to potential agreements with larger parties after 7 May. Commitments include improving NHS access—especially for mental health—reforming primary education to introduce play-based learning until age seven, and investing £400 million in social care.
Scottish Conservatives
Facing an existential threat from Reform UK, the Scottish Conservative manifesto positions the party as the only one voters can trust to oppose independence. It notes that Reform UK takes a more conditional approach, with Nigel Farage suggesting a second referendum would be 'quite reasonable.' This strategy has been successful in previous elections, but with voters focused on the cost of living, the constitution's salience is unclear. The manifesto also emphasizes tough measures on crime and benefits fraud, alongside across-the-board tax cuts. Leader Russell Findlay promised to tackle the 'bloated benefits bill' and proposed sending Scottish prisoners to foreign jails to alleviate overcrowding. The party would redouble North Sea oil and gas drilling and offer all pensioners a £500 tax rebate to cope with the cost of living.
