The recent local elections in England have fundamentally reshaped the political landscape, with significant gains for Reform UK and the Green Party at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives. The results reveal an increasingly fragmented political system, as voters shift allegiance to insurgent parties.
Key Gains and Losses
Reform UK made substantial inroads, securing 1,349 council seats and taking control of 14 councils. The Green Party also performed strongly, winning 376 council seats, control of five councils, and two mayoralties. In contrast, Labour suffered heavy losses, losing ground to both the Greens and Reform UK, while the Conservatives also sustained significant losses to Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats.
Factors Behind the Surge
1. Deprivation and Reform Support
Reform UK's vote share was largest in more deprived areas. Early analysis shows the party received 30% of votes in the most deprived parts of England, compared with 20% in the least deprived areas. This suggests that socioeconomic factors are driving support for the party.
2. Age Demographics
Reform UK performed better in areas with a higher proportion of over-65s, while the Green Party appealed more to younger voters. In wards where less than 10% of the population was over 65, Labour took 32% and Greens 31%, while Reform, Conservatives, and Lib Dems each took about 11%. Conversely, in wards where 40% or more were over 65, Reform received 31% and Conservatives 26%.
3. Education Levels
Reform UK found greater success in less educated areas. In wards where fewer than 40% of people had two or more A-levels, Reform secured almost 40% of the vote, far ahead of Labour's 23%. In areas where more than 70% had at least two A-levels, Reform's vote share dropped below 8%.
4. Renting and Green Support
The Green Party gained a larger vote share in areas with more renters. In wards where fewer than one in ten people rent, Greens averaged 13% of the vote. This rose to 23% in areas where at least 40% rent, indicating a strong correlation between renting and Green support.
5. Muslim Population and Green Vote
The Green Party performed well in areas with larger Muslim populations. In wards where less than 2% of residents were Muslim, the Green vote share increased by four percentage points. In areas where Muslims made up 10% or more, the increase was 14 percentage points, partly due to the party contesting more wards.
These trends highlight the changing dynamics of English politics, with traditional party loyalties giving way to more diverse voting patterns. The full results from England, Scotland, and Wales underscore a fragmented political system.
