With just four days left until the pivotal Makerfield by-election, recent polls indicate that Labour candidate Andy Burnham might receive unexpected assistance from a hard-right newcomer. The Restore Britain party, led by Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe, is contesting its first Parliamentary by-election since its official launch in February. Lowe formed the party after being expelled from Reform UK last year, and there is no love lost between him and Reform leader Nigel Farage.
Restore Britain's Platform and Controversies
Backed by newly minted trillionaire Elon Musk and Lowe's substantial X following, Restore Britain has positioned itself to the right of Reform on immigration. Its policies include deporting all legally resident foreign nationals who cannot speak English or "fail to integrate," along with abolishing the asylum system entirely. According to The Mail on Sunday, Restore activists canvassing in Makerfield attended a white supremacist summit in Portugal two weeks ago.
Polling Data
Two new polls ahead of Thursday's by-election show Restore candidate Rebecca Shepherd capturing a significant share of the vote. A More in Common survey for The Sunday Times puts Restore at 8%, with Burnham at 45% and Reform's Robert Kenyon at 40%. Meanwhile, an Opinium poll for The Independent gives Burnham 46%, Kenyon 41%, and Shepherd 7%. If these results hold, it could signal trouble for Farage as he faces a serious threat from his right flank for the first time.
In a sign of concern, Reform UK's official X account acknowledged Restore last month with the slogan "Vote Restore, get Burnham." Election analyst Sir John Curtice told The Independent that Restore could "make the difference between Reform winning or not winning." However, it remains unclear whether Restore voters would otherwise back Reform or stay home.
Burnham's Prospects
Allies of Burnham, currently Mayor of Greater Manchester, are cautiously optimistic. The by-election is considered one of the most consequential in recent British history, with Burnham poised to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership and premiership if he wins.
