Buoyed by recent off-year election successes, the Democratic Party is mounting an ambitious challenge in a staunchly Republican Tennessee congressional district. A victory here would deal a significant blow to Donald Trump's legislative agenda and dramatically tighten the GOP's fragile majority in the House of Representatives.
A District Designed for Republicans
Voters head to the polls on Tuesday for a special election to replace Republican Mark Green, who resigned in July. The middle Tennessee district was meticulously drawn by state GOP leaders to favour their party. In the last election, it backed both Trump and the outgoing congressman by commanding 22-point margins.
Under normal circumstances, the Republican nominee, former state official Matt Van Epps, would be considered a near-certain winner. However, the political landscape has shifted following Democratic wins in Virginia and New Jersey earlier this month. These results indicated a potential softening of support among previous Trump voters, prompting national Democrats and their allies to invest heavily in the campaign of state representative Aftyn Behn.
"We still expect that the Republican will prevail, but would not be surprised if it were a single-digit race," cautioned Dave Wasserman, a senior editor and elections analyst at the Cook Political Report.
A Tight Race in a Diverse District
The latest polling underscores the contest's competitiveness. A survey from Emerson College Polling and the Hill showed Van Epps leading Behn by just two percentage points, with 48% support to her 46%.
The district's geography is a key factor. While it contains large swathes of rural territory where Democrats traditionally struggle, it also incorporates a portion of left-leaning Nashville and the swing city of Clarksville. Black voters, who constitute roughly 15% of the electorate, are seen as crucial to a potential Behn victory, though their turnout can be unpredictable.
"It's a pretty solid Republican district," acknowledged Kent Syler, a political science professor at Middle Tennessee State University. However, he noted that Republicans "don't want to get caught sleeping," adding that "Democrats are very energized and want to see how well they can do."
National Stakes and Campaign Tactics
The implications of this race extend far beyond Tennessee. A Behn win would shrink the Republican House majority to such a narrow margin that Democrats could potentially reclaim the chamber before the 2026 midterms, especially if a few GOP incumbents depart.
This high-stakes scenario has triggered a flood of outside spending. The Democratic-aligned House Majority Pac has invested $1 million in digital and television ads. Another group, Your Community, has aired attack ads labelling Van Epps a "hedge fund puppet." On the Republican side, Trump's main PAC, Maga Inc, and the billionaire-backed Club for Growth are actively supporting Van Epps, who has branded Behn a "crazy leftwing radical."
Both parties have deployed star power. Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin campaigned for Behn, and Vice President Kamala Harris appeared at one of her events. Former President Trump has publicly urged support for Van Epps.
Even a narrow loss for Behn could benefit Democrats strategically. A close result in such a red district would help the party recruit candidates and raise funds for similar challenges elsewhere, forcing Republicans to spend precious resources defending seats they assumed were safe.
As one national Democratic strategist working on House races put it, Republicans are spending heavily "in a desperate last-minute attempt to avoid a Democratic overperformance." They argued the GOP's unpopular agenda is creating vulnerabilities even in deep Trump country.
A Republican strategist countered, warning against reading too much into special election turnout for predicting midterm results. "It's like comparing apples and oranges," they said.
For the GOP, a convincing Van Epps victory would provide much-needed positive momentum. Professor Syler suggested it would "certainly help the Republicans and the president to, in essence, stop the bleeding that started earlier this month."
