Democrats are setting their sights on Maine for a Senate seat, viewing incumbent Republican Susan Collins as newly vulnerable after nearly 30 years in office. Collins, 73, has styled herself as a moderate conservative who delivers for Maine, even when it means defying Donald Trump. But as she seeks a sixth term, national Democrats see the state as a clear path to reclaiming the Senate.
The Challenger: Graham Platner
Collins will face Graham Platner, a 41-year-old Marine veteran and oysterman with no national political experience and a controversial past. Despite racist, sexist, and homophobic online posts that have surfaced, along with a now-covered tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol, Platner has amassed rare kinetic energy. Hundreds of Mainers flock to town halls to hear his gravelly-voiced excoriation of Washington. His rise forced Governor Janet Mills to suspend her primary bid due to dwindling resources.
Platner's youth and outsider profile suggest Maine, the oldest and whitest state in the country, may be ready for change. A former state Republican official, speaking anonymously, noted: "We like her, and she's been good for Maine, but she's had her time for somebody new or younger." Collins's campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
The Trump Factor
Donald Trump also poses challenges for Collins. Maine is one of four seats Democrats see as viable pickups to regain the Senate. Collins is the only Senate Republican running for reelection in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024. This is her first time on the ballot since Trump returned to the White House, ensuring a nationalized contest shaped by foreign policy crises, high gas prices, inflation, immigration crackdowns, Medicaid cuts, and weakened federal agencies.
Collins has defied Trump before, voting to convict him after January 6, opposing Pete Hegseth's nomination, and confirming Ketanji Brown Jackson. But she has also backed many Trump priorities. Her vote for Brett Kavanaugh and the subsequent Dobbs decision loom large, as does her support for a national voter ID bill and delayed backing of a war powers resolution on Iran. Democrats seized on an image of Collins holding a MAGA cap in the Oval Office.
Background Actor or Key Player?
Collins's maneuvering on Capitol Hill may cast her as a background actor. Tony Payne, former executive director of the Maine Republican Party, said: "She is the most talented Senate staffer to have a seat in the Senate. The feeling is widespread that she will show her independence only when her vote is not required." Platner has branded her moderation as complicity, calling her breaks with Trump "symbolic opposition" that don't reopen hospitals or bring back Roe v. Wade.
Trump has no viable alternative to Collins. Unlike in other states, he cannot endorse a hardliner. After years of attacking Collins, he has shifted to faint praise, calling her a "good person." But in Maine, his blessing could be a liability among libertarian-leaning voters wary of the MAGA wing. Jeffrey Selinger, professor at Bowdoin College, noted: "She really needs silence from him, and he's not good at that."
JD Vance acknowledged Collins's predicament in Bangor: "The thing I love about Susan is she is independent because Maine is an independent state. If she was as partisan as I sometimes wish, she would not be a good fit for the people of Maine."
Polling and Money
In early matchups, Collins trails Platner by single digits, but she has survived poor polling before. The top Senate GOP Super PAC has invested $42 million in the race, with more outside spending pouring in. Republicans will have ample resources to discredit Platner, especially by resurfacing his controversies. Political operatives expect more opposition research to flood the race.
Lance Dutson, a GOP strategist who worked on Collins's campaigns, said Platner runs a "top shelf" campaign with impressive media, but Maine rewards old-style politics. At the Maine Republican convention, Collins emphasized her record: "I'm going to be talking about my record of delivering for my beloved state." She highlighted her seniority as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee and the influence built over 30 years. In her first general election spot, she focused on federal funding for a collapsed pier in Eastport rather than attacking her opponent.
Dutson added that Collins's tenure as a camera-shy workhorse could outweigh abstractions about her character: "If I'm in a town of 1,500 people and Susan Collins got us the new fire truck, that's more impactful than her opinion of Trump."
