Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats, has issued a stark warning to voters in the home counties: fail to back his party and they may "regret it for a long time" if Reform UK takes control of their local council. Speaking during a visit to a dairy farm in Hampshire, Davey identified five councils where the Lib Dems could win overall control: East Surrey, West Surrey, Hampshire, West Sussex, and Huntingdonshire. He described the contests as a "straight fight" between his party and Reform in swathes of the former Conservative "blue wall."
More than 5,000 councillors will be elected on Thursday, with over half of the seats in London or the south-east. Projections suggest the Lib Dems could gain 500 seats, while Labour may lose as many as 1,800. The Greens are also expected to gain hundreds, with top estimates reaching 1,700. Pollsters at More In Common predict the Lib Dems will take the newly created East and West Surrey councils.
"If we are going to stop Reform, we are the party most capable of doing that; it is on a knife edge in some of these areas," Davey said. "People could vote Labour or Green and then we will get narrowly beaten by Reform, and people will regret it for a long time." Unlike previous elections, Labour and the Conservatives have fractured voter bases, leaving many seats up for grabs for the Greens, Lib Dems, and Reform.
Davey argued that the Lib Dems are a better bet than the Greens, stating: "We are finding that when people realise the choice is us or Reform, lots of people who were even thinking of voting Conservative were coming to us, certainly Labour and Green are coming to us. Tactical voting will be key; Reform is working really hard, spending lots of their money, meaning results will be on a knife edge." He noted that in parts of northern England, such as Stockport and Hull, polls show a straight fight between the Lib Dems and Reform. He also urged voters in Portsmouth to back the Lib Dems to stop Reform.
Davey criticised the lack of opposition to Donald Trump and weakness over the war in Iran, saying these factors have hurt both Reform and the Conservatives. He added that Tory leader Kemi Badenoch made a mistake by tacking hard to the right. "When you talk to that traditional one-nation, pro-European liberal Tory, they are pretty upset with Kemi Badenoch; they feel the Conservative party has left them," he said. "They look at us and see us standing up for Britain against Trump's bullying, they like what we are saying on the economy and defence, and they feel more comfortable with us."
The Lib Dems are well placed to take these areas because, unlike Labour and the Greens, they can convince disillusioned Tories to vote for them. "There is a big difference between us and the Greens," Davey said. "The Greens are basically taking votes from Labour. We are taking votes off the Tories to stop Farage. I don't think the Greens are going to play much role in stopping Reform, whereas we are literally central."
Davey highlighted local issues his party has been fighting on, including fly tipping, potholes, and sewage pollution in rivers. He also plans to campaign to reduce the price of a pint after reports that it had hit £10 in some parts of London. "I like a pint like everyone else, and the idea of £10 a pint should make people think twice," he said. In addition to proposing to cut national insurance tax for employers if the Lib Dems were elected to government, "we would look at cutting VAT for hospitality as well."
Davey noted that US President Donald Trump has come up frequently in conversations on the doorstep. "He is coming up all over the place; people will talk about potholes and then they will go on to Trump in the same conversation. The vast majority of people detest Donald Trump, and they associate Nigel Farage as being Trump's champion; he recently referred to Trump as the 'boss in Mar-a-Lago.'"
Davey reiterated that people who do not want "Trump-style policies" should vote tactically, including voting Liberal Democrat in areas where they are polling second behind Reform. "The fact Farage was cheerleading for Donald Trump and calling for us to get into the war has angered many," he said. "Progressive voters obviously can't stand Trump, but even Tory voters and some Reform voters [can't either] if they have seen that Farage wants to bring Trump-style policies to the UK."
