Costa Rica's Pivotal Election Amid Security Crisis and Democratic Fears
Costa Rica heads to the polls this Sunday in a crucial election that could reshape the nation's political landscape, with voters choosing both a president and 57 members of congress for the next four-year term. The campaign has been dominated by escalating security concerns and growing warnings about a potential authoritarian turn in a country traditionally celebrated as a bastion of liberal democracy in Central America.
Security Takes Centre Stage in Campaign
Crime has emerged as the dominant issue for many Costa Rican voters, as criminal organisations battle for control of lucrative cocaine trafficking routes to Europe and the United States. This surge in organised crime has cast a dark shadow over a nation famous for its eco-tourism and wildlife conservation efforts.
The homicide rate has climbed to 16.7 per 100,000 people, making Costa Rica the third most dangerous country in Central America. Last year, authorities dismantled what they described as the nation's first transnational crime organisation, the "South Caribbean Cartel," and arrested a former security minister on US drug trafficking charges.
Fernández Leads Polls with Hardline Platform
Laura Fernández, the 37-year-old former minister and handpicked candidate of current President Rodrigo Chaves, leads the latest polls with approximately 40% of voter support. This substantial lead positions her for a potential first-round victory, though roughly one-third of voters remain undecided.
Fernández has promised a tough approach to security, even suggesting she would implement states of exception in violence hotspots. Her platform reflects President Chaves's admiration for the hardline security policies of El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele, whom Chaves invited to groundbreaking ceremonies for a new prison modelled on Bukele's controversial Terrorism Confinement Center.
Political Transformation Under Chaves
The current political landscape represents a dramatic transformation from Costa Rica's traditional politics. President Rodrigo Chaves, an economist who left the World Bank amid sexual harassment allegations, surged to victory in 2022 by tapping into public anger against established political elites.
Since taking office, Chaves has pursued economic improvements with mixed success while adopting an abrasive political style that has frequently clashed with Costa Rica's institutional norms. Courts have sought to prosecute him on corruption and election interference charges, but congress has blocked attempts to remove his presidential immunity.
Democratic Institutions Under Scrutiny
Political analysts express concern about the potential erosion of democratic norms. Eugenia Aguirre, an investigator at the University of Costa Rica's Observatory of National Politics, notes that Fernández's proposed security measures have been criticised by opposition candidates as "an authoritarian move."
"So far, we've seen changes of political style: attacks and threats directed at political opponents – things we hadn't seen in Costa Rica for a long time," Aguirre observed. She warns that a landslide victory for Fernández could enable significant structural changes to Costa Rica's institutions.
Congressional Balance Crucial
The composition of the next congress will prove critical to Costa Rica's political direction. James Bosworth, founder of consultancy Hxagon, notes that Fernández could potentially secure either a majority or supermajority in congress, which would provide substantial legislative power.
"If they win a simple majority in congress, that gives them room to make a lot of changes to institutions," Aguirre explained. "If they win a supermajority, they have announced a series of constitutional changes to transform the state."
Opposition Fragmentation and Uncertain Outcome
The opposition remains fragmented, with no candidate exceeding 10% support in recent polls. This division could prove decisive if the election proceeds to a second round, as undecided voters could consolidate behind a single opposition candidate.
Luis Antonio Sobrado, former president of the supreme electoral tribunal, framed the election as a critical juncture: "This election will determine whether Costa Rica corrects its populist drift or sinks more or less definitively."
Enduring Democratic Traditions
Despite the concerns, some analysts maintain confidence in Costa Rica's democratic resilience. "Costa Rica will still have fair elections four years from now," Bosworth predicted. "Costa Rica will remain Costa Rica."
The nation's voters now face a fundamental choice between addressing pressing security concerns through potentially authoritarian measures and preserving the democratic traditions that have long distinguished Costa Rica in a troubled region.
