A profound sense of political déjà vu has gripped European capitals as Ukraine and its Western allies face a perilous moment, triggered by a new US-Russia peace proposal demanding substantial concessions from Kyiv.
Emergency Diplomacy in Geneva
Last-minute crisis talks are underway in Geneva this Sunday, a pivotal meeting initially scheduled between American and Ukrainian officials that has rapidly expanded to include senior figures from multiple European nations. The core discussions are expected between US envoy Steve Witkoff and the Ukrainian delegation, but sideline negotiations will now involve a broader coalition of countries.
This urgent diplomatic scramble follows the revelation of a 28-point peace plan co-written or approved by Witkoff, which aligns closely with a proposal put forward by Vice President JD Vance in summer 2024. Many European leaders, including Britain's Keir Starmer, held conversations with President Trump over Friday and Saturday, with a source describing Starmer's discussion as "good, short but productive."
The Vance Influence and a Rush to Resolution
The sudden American push for a rapid peace settlement appears to bear the fingerprints of Vice President Vance, who has historically questioned substantial support for Ukraine. The territorial elements of the current plan mirror his earlier proposals. Dan Driscoll, the US Secretary of the Army and a Yale contemporary of Vance, has been leading communications with Ukrainian officials.
This unexpected momentum is seen by some sources as an attempt by the Trump administration to draw a line under the Ukraine conflict, allowing a refocus on domestic priorities ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. President Trump has suggested the deal is not a final offer and the deadline for an agreement, though ambitious, might be flexible.
A Perilous Week Ahead for European Security
The immediate future hangs on the outcome of the Geneva meeting. Following this, a meeting of the European "coalition of the willing" is expected to convene. A contingent of European leaders is then considered likely to travel to Washington, potentially as early as Tuesday, for another attempt to sway the American position.
Despite the flurry of diplomacy, the situation remains critically unstable for Ukraine and its European partners. The coming days will determine whether a memorandum of understanding can be reached or if Western unity on Ukraine faces its most significant challenge yet.
