Iran's Diplomatic Gambit: A Fragile Regional Reset
Iran is cautiously testing a new diplomatic approach with its Arab neighbours, attempting to reposition itself as a regional partner rather than a threat. This soft-power initiative emerges amid significant internal repression and follows devastating US airstrikes in June that killed more than 1,000 Iranians.
The tentative foreign policy shift reflects both necessity and opportunity. Much of Iran's network of regional military alliances has been dismantled in recent years, while Tehran believes Donald Trump's disregard for international law creates an opening for less disruptive relationships with Arab states.
Regional Realignment Amid Changing Perceptions
At a recent Tehran forum organised by a foreign ministry-linked thinktank, international academics and senior Iranian diplomats gathered to discuss how the United States – not Iran – now represents the primary threat to the rules-based international order.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi articulated this position clearly: "The solid foundations of international law have been subjected to unprecedented attacks by powers that were expected to be its permanent defenders and custodians."
The lack of European condemnation following June's unilateral US strikes continues to astonish Iranian officials. Their anger intensified when Trump later admitted planning the operation while simultaneously negotiating over Iran's nuclear programme.
Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute believes Iran may find receptive audiences in the region. "After the Israeli attack on Qatar in September, there is a massive shift in the thinking in the Gulf Cooperation Council as a whole," Parsi observed. "For so many years they viewed Iran as the main threat... Now many are seeing that on the one hand Iran has been weakened, but also Iran does not have the same hostility in their perception."
Nuclear Dilemma and Internal Repression
Despite diplomatic overtures, Tehran shows no signs of abandoning its hard-power capabilities or its right to enrich uranium. Many officials privately fear another US assault before Trump leaves the White House, prompting efforts to re-equip air defences, acquire Russian Sukhoi jets, and expand ballistic missile stocks.
Araghchi faces daily public questions about potentially lifting the fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons. The killing of scientist Fereydoon Abbasi in June removed a key advocate for nuclear-tipped drones as a potential workaround to the religious prohibition.
University of Tehran professor Foad Izadi explained the government's precarious position: "There is a lot of pressure on the current government from the reformists to negotiate more but there is pressure from the other side – the principalists – saying Iran cannot afford to be surprised again."
Meanwhile, the state maintains its iron grip domestically. A UN fact-finding mission reported that by mid-August, security forces had arrested approximately 21,000 people, while executions reached their highest level since 2015. Even leftwing translators faced detention.
Reformist former president Mohammad Khatami recently criticised the government's failure to release political prisoners or lift internet restrictions, noting that "the summoning, recalling, and even trial of many politicians, media figures, intellectuals, and even reputable and tested figures has increased."
The Limits of Soft Power
A recent Tehran design week event illustrated both the potential and limitations of Iran's soft-power ambitions. Showcasing set design, fashion, and sculpture under the slogan "Dynamic Heritage and Sustainable Future," it presented an image of Iran starkly different from Western media portrayals.
However, authorities shut down the exhibition citing safety hazards, though the real catalyst appeared to be social media videos showing women without hijabs. The incident revealed how entrenched conservative forces continue to constrain cultural expression.
As Iran navigates this complex landscape, it faces a momentous challenge: can it genuinely transform its regional relationships while maintaining internal repression? The faint outlines of a different Iran freed from self-imposed isolation are visible, but the path forward remains fraught with obstacles that suggest any meaningful transformation will be painfully slow.
