In an era marked by rising global tensions and increasing conflict, prominent voices are questioning whether we're witnessing the demise of international law. Recent events from Ukraine to Gaza have sparked intense debate about the viability of the rules-based order established after the Second World War.
The Assault on Global Governance
Professor Philippe Sands, an expert in international law at University College London, acknowledges that we are living through a period of significant challenge to international legal frameworks. The year 1945 marked a pivotal moment with the founding of the United Nations and the International Military Tribunal to address war crimes committed during the Second World War.
Recent commentary in prestigious publications reflects growing concern about the state of global governance. The Financial Times published an editorial titled "A world without rules" following Israel's missile strike on a building hosting Hamas officials in Qatar and the incursion of 19 Russian drones into Polish airspace. The newspaper described these events as producing "a kind of anarchy and a proliferation of violence."
Meanwhile, Professor John Bew of King's College London, who previously served as foreign policy adviser at 10 Downing Street under Boris Johnson, has characterised advocates of the rules-based system as having a "sentimental" view. He argues that "raw power is being asserted everywhere we look" and that global actors are deliberately breaking the rules of the post-1945 legal international order.
Historical Perspective on Lawlessness
Professor Sands challenges the notion that current lawlessness represents something entirely new. "The assault on international rules has been more or less continual since 1945," he notes, pointing to historical examples including Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Iraq.
Yale professor Oona Hathaway has expressed particular concern about the protection of civilians under international humanitarian law, suggesting it's being "eroded to the point of threatening to lose all meaning." However, Sands emphasises that the violation of laws doesn't mean they cease to exist. The rules established in the 1949 Geneva conventions and their 1977 protocols continue to apply despite attacks on civilians in Ukraine, Israel on 7 October, Gaza, and parts of Sudan.
The Silent Success of International Law
While high-profile violations capture headlines, the vast majority of international law continues to operate effectively behind the scenes. Our daily lives depend on international legal frameworks that govern everything from train travel between London and Paris to mobile phone communications, food safety, and medication standards.
Contrary to predictions of a post-rules world, international lawmaking continues apace. In recent months, states have agreed to negotiate a new UN convention on crimes against humanity and adopted a treaty to create the first international tribunal on the crime of aggression since Nuremberg, specifically addressing Russia's illegal occupation of Ukraine.
International courts remain busier than ever. The International Court of Justice currently has 23 contentious cases on its docket, more than at any time in recent memory. The court's advisory opinion function has attracted unprecedented engagement, with 98 states participating in proceedings on climate change - the highest level of participation in the court's history.
The Populist Challenge and Historical Patterns
Giuliano da Empoli, in his book The Hour of the Predator, describes how a new class of political predators and digital conquistadors has made enemies of lawyers, their rules and institutions, and the post-1945 commitment to regulations governing free trade, individual rights, and the use of force.
Former US President Donald Trump's approach exemplifies this challenge, from boycotting climate change conferences to policies involving alleged extrajudicial actions in the Caribbean Sea. However, these approaches have prompted reactions from other nations. The UK reportedly ceased certain intelligence support to the US in the Caribbean over concerns about complicity in criminality, while French foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot declared that military operations in the region "violate international law."
Professor Sands identifies a historical pattern: the creation of international rules and institutions is followed by their partial destruction, then reconstruction that builds on what came before. While figures like Hans Frank and General Augusto Pinochet once swaggered similarly to contemporary populists, they eventually encountered realities that forced accommodations and agreements governed by international rules.
We are not in a world without law, Sands concludes, but rather in a world where some seek to strip back certain international rules. The struggle continues, and while it may worsen before improving, history suggests that reconstruction will follow destruction, building on the foundations laid in 1945 and maintained through subsequent decades of global cooperation.
