Military tensions between the United States and Venezuela are escalating, with reports suggesting Caracas is preparing for a guerrilla war should Washington launch a ground invasion.
The simmering standoff between US leader Donald Trump and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has seen dozens of American warships gather in the Caribbean Sea in recent months. While the US military vastly outnumbers Venezuela's forces, analysts suggest Maduro's regime could employ asymmetric tactics to stall an advance.
The Strategy of Sabotage and Chaos
Facing the world's foremost military superpower, Venezuela's potential strategy hinges on two key concepts: guerrilla warfare and 'anarchisation'.
Guerrilla tactics would involve paramilitary groups and local fighters sabotaging US troop movements, concealing themselves, setting booby traps, and destroying critical infrastructure. This form of resistance, designed to avoid direct frontline confrontation, has a long history in Latin America.
If that fails, the regime could resort to 'anarchisation' – deliberately unleashing chaos on the streets of the capital, Caracas, to render the nation 'ungovernable' for any foreign power. This power vacuum, however, risks allowing criminal groups to seize control, a pattern observed in Colombia and Haiti.
Expert Doubts Over Venezuelan Capability
Dr Carlos Solar, a Senior Research Fellow in Latin American Security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told Metro that while the possibility is real, the Venezuelan army's capacity to sustain a prolonged guerrilla campaign is questionable.
'Guerrillas usually keep their struggle because they have ways to secure access to ammunition, logistical routes, and supplies,' Dr Solar stated. 'This is difficult to visualise in the current conditions holding together the Venezuelan army.'
He also cast doubt on the reliability of civilian militias, describing Maduro's claims of a ready paramilitary force as a classic dictator's strategy to rally the population. 'Venezuelans are eager for peace and a return to democracy to return to the country they used to have,' he explained.
Dr Solar advised that to avoid a protracted guerrilla conflict, the US would need to strategically prevent conditions that allow it, including disbanding armed forces, controlling weapon caches, and stopping criminal groups from filling an authority vacuum.
A Nation Weary of Crisis
The threat of conflict with a superpower is daunting, but Venezuelans have endured a severe economic and political crisis for over a decade. Food prices alone have soared by an estimated 548% this year, with forecasts predicting further deterioration.
Citizen sentiment is a complex mix of fear and desperate hope. 'We’re scared, silent, afraid they’ll throw us in jail,' a worker from southern Venezuela told the BBC, highlighting the climate of repression.
Another woman referenced a potential US intervention, saying, 'There’s hope, faith, but people are quiet out of fear... but there’s a hint of joy.' Barbara Marrero summarised the pervasive mood: 'We’re all waiting for something to happen because it’s fair and necessary. We’ve been living in absolute misery for years… but everyone is afraid, and nobody says anything.'
Venezuela's Military Reality
Venezuela's conventional military disadvantages are stark. Out of a population of 31 million, only 12 million are considered fit for service. The active military personnel number approximately 109,000, though paramilitary forces are larger.
A critical weakness is the ageing, mostly Russian-made equipment, much of it decades old. Reports indicate Maduro has deployed thousands of Russian-supplied Igla missiles for potential 'surprise' attacks, and anti-vehicle weaponry could hinder ground troop advances.
Despite alliances with Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, Syria, and Cuba, and requests for military aid as the US threat grows, no foreign power has yet provided new equipment, leaving Venezuela reliant on its obsolete arsenal.
The coming weeks will reveal whether the gathering naval presence translates into action, and if Venezuela's threatened guerrilla war remains a theoretical deterrent or becomes a grim reality.
