The US launched its third consecutive night of strikes on Iran hours after Donald Trump said Washington would reinstate a maritime blockade on the country and, in an apparent policy reversal, charge ships for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Strikes continue as Trump threatens heavy action
The US military's Central Command said: "These strikes will continue imposing a heavy cost on Iranian forces and degrade their ability to attack innocent civilians and commercial shipping in the strait of Hormuz." Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt: "We're going to hit them very hard tonight and we're going to hit them hard tomorrow – and there's not a damn thing they can do about it." He added: "They have nothing. They have nothing going, other than they have big mouths."
UAE tanker attack and oil price surge
Late on Monday, the UAE said two national tankers were targeted by two Iranian cruise missiles in the southern lane of the Strait of Hormuz in Omani territorial waters, killing one Indian crew member and wounding eight others, including four seriously. The price of Brent crude oil rose 7.8% to $81.92 a barrel on Monday, still well below the $120 reached at the height of the war.
Trump's tariff proposal and policy reversal
Earlier on Monday, Trump said the US would demand a 20% tariff on all cargoes shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. He suggested on Truth Social that the US should be known as the "guardian of the strait of Hormuz". Until now, the US had said the strait should remain open to all without tolls – as it was before Washington and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February. Any attempt to charge fees would violate global norms on freedom of navigation and could cause further economic disruption.
Interim deal in jeopardy
Iran and the US are nearly halfway through the 60-day period of an interim deal meant to set up talks for a permanent end to the war, which began in February with the assassination of Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, in US-Israeli airstrikes. The deal has devolved into attacks over the strait, resulting in the near-total collapse of an interim ceasefire.
Congressional notification and legal disputes
On Monday, it was revealed that Trump sent Congress formal notification that hostilities against Iran had resumed on 7 July, opening a new 60-day window to use the military without congressional approval. The US Constitution gives Congress the power to declare war, but presidents have long claimed the right to order shorter engagements. The war powers act requires the president to inform Congress within 48 hours of initiating hostilities. Democrats and Republican opponents have accused the administration of misinterpreting the law.
Blockade enforcement and international reaction
The US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center said the US would begin enforcing the blockade on Iran on Tuesday night. A statement read: "Any vessel suspected of entering or departing the blockaded area without authorisation is subject to interception, diversion and capture. Noncompliant vessels may be legally compelled with force." Neutral transit through the strait to non-Iranian destinations will not be impeded. It remains unclear how easy this would be to enforce.
Trump's demand for a 20% tariff contradicts his administration's previous stance. Last month, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said: "No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway. That's existing international law." Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps accused the US of jeopardising global oil and gas supplies. IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebi said Washington "seriously endangered the security of the world's oil and gas supply and must be held accountable", adding that Tehran would "continue to exercise sovereignty over and management of the strait of Hormuz".
IMO stance and regional spread
The International Maritime Organization said it was waiting to learn more about Trump's proposal but reiterated: "We have always been consistent on our stance on fees – IMO stands firmly against charging fees for passage through straits used for international navigation. There is no legal basis through which to introduce mandatory tolls simply to transit through a strait." Trump said the US would probably take over the strait and should be reimbursed for controlling the waterway. Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, posted on social media: "The era of one-sided deals is OVER. We told you: keep your word or pay the price. Reality is knocking."
The war has spread across the region, with Iran attacking US bases in multiple countries. Thousands have been killed, mainly in Iran and Lebanon. Iran's strikes on Sunday extended to Qatar, a mediator that had not come under attack since April. The UAE, not targeted since early May, said its air defences engaged missiles and drones from Iran. The conflict has caused global economic shock waves, driving energy prices higher and fuelling global inflation. Higher prices, especially for petrol, are politically sensitive for Trump ahead of November's US congressional elections.
