Trump Administration Warns China Could Block US Access to Indo-Pacific Trade
A newly published national defence strategy document from the Trump administration has issued a stark warning: China could "effectively veto" the United States' ability to trade and engage in the Indo-Pacific region if the world's second-largest economy continues its significant military build-up. The paper, released by President Trump's Department of War, describes China as the "most powerful state" compared to the US since the 19th century, highlighting its growing military spending as a major global development.
Security and Prosperity Linked to Indo-Pacific Region
The strategy paper emphasises that American security, freedom, and prosperity are directly tied to the Indo-Pacific, which it predicts will soon account for more than half of the global economy. "The American people's security, freedom, and prosperity are therefore directly linked to our ability to trade and engage from a position of strength in the Indo-Pacific," the document states. Notably, the paper makes no mention of Taiwan and omits previous characterisations of China as spreading authoritarianism, marking a shift in diplomatic tone.
Regarding other global powers, the document assesses Russia's military threat as primarily focused on Eastern Europe. It suggests US priorities will centre on deterring China rather than defending European allies, whom it describes as having a "smaller and decreasing share of global economic power."
Chagos Islands Deal Thrown into Question
The defence strategy has cast intense scrutiny over Prime Minister Keir Starmer's agreement to transfer the Chagos Islands, part of the British Indian Ocean Territory, to Mauritius. A key element of the deal involves leasing back a shared US-UK military base on Diego Garcia for 99 years at a cost of £3.5 billion. However, the document's implications raise doubts about continued US commitment to backing this arrangement.
Political hurdles have already emerged. A bill necessary to enact the Chagos handover, expected to be tabled in Parliament, was derailed by a Conservative amendment in the House of Lords. The amendment argued the transfer could violate a treaty with the United States. In response, Labour officials have insisted the legislation will proceed, with national security adviser Jonathan Powell asserting the deal is crucial for UK national security.
Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel hailed the delay as a "major victory for everyone standing against Keir Starmer's disgraceful Chagos surrender." She added, "In the face of relentless Conservative pressure, Labour have pulled their shameful bill from Monday's order paper."
Fraying Relations Between Trump and Starmer
The Chagos issue appears to be a focal point in deteriorating relations between President Trump and Prime Minister Starmer. Tensions escalated recently when Starmer strongly criticised Trump's "appalling" comments suggesting British troops avoided frontlines during the Afghanistan War. "Let me start by paying tribute to 457 of our armed services who lost their lives in Afghanistan," Starmer stated. "I will never forget their courage, their bravery and the sacrifice that they made for their country. There are many also who were injured, some with life-changing injuries. And so I consider President Trump's remarks to be insulting and, frankly, appalling." The Prime Minister has called for a presidential apology.
This diplomatic strain, combined with the strategic warnings in the defence paper, underscores a complex geopolitical landscape where trade access, military posture, and international agreements are increasingly intertwined.
