Security Concerns Escalate in North-East Syria Following Kurdish Withdrawal
Western officials have voiced serious apprehension regarding the rapidly deteriorating security situation in north-east Syria. This follows the withdrawal of Kurdish forces earlier this week, which has sparked fears of a potential resurgence of Islamic State militants in the region.
US Military Transfers IS Fighters to Iraq
The United States military has confirmed the transportation of approximately 150 Islamic State fighters from a frontline prison in Hasakah province across the border into Iraq. Officials have indicated a willingness to relocate up to 7,000 detainees to prevent what they describe as a dangerous potential breakout scenario.
Kurdish sources have identified the prison in question as Panorama, which holds male detainees originally from multiple countries, including a small number from the United Kingdom. Specific details regarding which individuals have been transferred remain unclear at this time.
Chaotic Transfer of Detention Facilities
The recent advance by Syrian government forces, temporarily halted by a fragile ceasefire agreement on Tuesday, has resulted in the chaotic transfer of several key detention facilities. These include prisons holding former IS fighters and the al-Hawl camp, which houses over 23,000 women and children associated with the militant group.
While other high-profile female detainees, such as Shamima Begum, are believed to remain in the Kurdish-controlled al-Roj camp in extreme north-east Syria, reports of escapes and loss of control continue to cause significant anxiety among European security officials.
Conflicting Reports from al-Hawl Camp
The al-Hawl camp, which holds more than 20,000 women originally from approximately 70 different countries, changed hands on Tuesday amid conflicting reports. Some sources suggest that at least some of the women detained there managed to leave following the departure of Kurdish forces.
Humanitarian organisations providing essential supplies including food, water, and heating materials to the camp, located in hostile desert terrain, have reported being unable to visit since Sunday. They have expressed growing concern that the situation could become increasingly unstable.
Prison Breaks and Security Challenges
An estimated 120 IS militants escaped on Monday from the Shaddadi prison after it was seized from Syrian Kurdish forces during a violent confrontation. The Syrian government has since claimed to have recaptured 81 of these escapees, though verification remains challenging.
European officials have warned that many militants held in these prisons and camps are considered highly dangerous. However, uncertainty persists regarding their ability to regroup and whether the Syrian government, led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will maintain the same level of control previously exercised by Kurdish forces.
Historical Context and Current Developments
Islamic State suffered territorial defeat in 2019, with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), led primarily by Kurdish fighters, serving as ground troops. Thousands of male militants were subsequently detained in prisons, while women and children were relocated to camps where some have remained for years awaiting repatriation.
The SDF maintained control as the effective governing authority in north-eastern Syria during the final years of the al-Assad regime. However, when Assad was ousted in December 2024 by al-Sharaa's Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), it created an uncertain situation with the SDF reluctant to fully integrate into the new Syrian government structure.
Analyst Perspectives on Security Risks
Nanar Hawach, a Syria expert and analyst with Crisis Group, has highlighted the danger of "not a reborn caliphate but a dispersed insurgency rebuilding in the cracks." Hawach noted that prison breaks "may have released experienced operatives into a contested security environment" between Syrian government and SDF forces.
On Tuesday, the United States signalled a significant shift in policy by abandoning its support for the SDF. Tom Barrack, the US special envoy for Syria, stated that "the original purpose of the SDF as the primary anti-Isis force on the ground has largely expired," indicating that Washington now views the Damascus government as its partner in containing Islamic State.
Complex Political Landscape
Although HTS originated as an offshoot of the al-Qaida terror group, it has historically opposed Islamic State and severed ties with al-Qaida in 2016. Before launching its offensive on Damascus, al-Sharaa emphasised that HTS had evolved, though reports of sectarian violence targeting Alawite, Druze, and Kurdish minorities have emerged.
Hawach observed that the new Syrian government "clearly wants to be seen as a counter-terrorism partner" but cautioned that "securing Isis detention facilities, managing camps like al-Hawl, and suppressing sleeper cells across newly acquired territory requires resources, discipline, and institutional capacity that the Syrian government is still building."
Recent Military Developments
A rapid offensive by Syrian government forces beginning over the weekend resulted in significant territorial gains from the SDF. The city of Raqqa was captured on Sunday, and the SDF initially agreed to hand over control of Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor provinces as part of a ceasefire agreement. This arrangement broke down almost immediately, leading to further advances by government forces.
Al-Sharaa agreed to a fresh ceasefire on Tuesday, one day after speaking with former US President Donald Trump. Trump stated he had been "trying to protect the Kurds," though it remains uncertain whether the SDF will accept al-Sharaa's demands or risk another round of military confrontation.
SDF leader Mazloum Abdi has been given four days from Tuesday to consult with Kurdish leaders regarding the Syrian government's demands for closer integration with Damascus, setting the stage for critical decisions in the coming days.
