A high-ranking Royal Navy admiral has issued a stark warning that NATO lacks the necessary resilience to sustain a prolonged military confrontation with Russia.
A Realist's Warning on NATO's Vulnerabilities
Admiral Mike Utley, a senior maritime commander within the defence alliance, stated that while NATO possesses superior capabilities compared to Russia's war machine, its current posture may not endure a conflict of any significant length. The warning was delivered in an interview with Bloomberg on December 19, 2025.
Admiral Utley emphasised that the West must prepare for a broad spectrum of warfare, ranging from conventional military engagements to sophisticated cyber attacks. He described himself as a 'realist', acknowledging that member nations cannot direct 'every penny' to defence and that difficult 'prioritisations' are inevitable.
Complex Challenges Beyond the Cold War Era
The admiral highlighted that modern international interdependence on critical technology and supply chains would add severe complications to any war, creating a scenario markedly different from the Cold War. 'This challenge is going to get more complicated, more persistent and isn’t going to go away,' he stated.
This assessment aligns with NATO's own maritime strategy, published earlier in 2025, which identifies Russia and terrorism as the alliance's two primary threats. The document also acknowledges 'systemic challenges' posed by China, citing its military buildup in the Arctic and its partnership with Vladimir Putin as key concerns.
Testing Defences and Building Resilience
Throughout the year, Russia has persistently tested NATO's defences, including incursions by ships into British waters and drone deployments over Poland. In response, NATO launched its 'Baltic Sentry' operation, designed to protect vital undersea infrastructure using data and advanced technology to intercept threats.
Despite the vulnerabilities, Admiral Utley expressed cautious optimism, noting that nations have recognised the shortfall and 'are prepared to invest in those capability sets to grow our resilience'. He remains convinced NATO is moving in the right direction as governments awaken to the pressing need for stronger defence.
The call for investment comes as several European countries still fall short of the agreed target to spend 2% of GDP on defence—a figure all members have pledged to increase to 5% by 2035.
The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by the stance of the United States under President Donald Trump. His national security strategy, which expresses a willingness to engage with rivals like Russia and China, has sown doubts about Washington's long-term commitment to European security. Nevertheless, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently asserted that, thanks to the US president, the bloc is 'stronger than it ever was'.
The warnings emerge amid heightened global tensions concerning the potential for wider conflict, fuelled by the war in Ukraine, the Israel-Gaza conflict, and other flashpoints. Experts caution that any future war would likely feature devastating cyber attacks, potentially triggering societal disruptions akin to those seen during the pandemic.
