A Year On: The Stark Warnings of 'If Russia Wins' Remain Critically Relevant
One year ago, Carlo Masala, a renowned German professor of security and defence policy, completed his influential book Wenn Russland gewinnt (If Russia Wins). This work, which soared to number one on Germany's bestseller list, was intended as a dire warning. Today, its insights are more pertinent than ever, as global tensions underscore the West's ongoing vulnerabilities.
The Scenario of a Russian Victory
Masala does not depict an apocalyptic Third World War or a large-scale Russian assault on Europe. Instead, he argues that a Russian victory in the Ukraine war is already a reality if Russia retains the territory it currently occupies. In his scenario, a de facto dictated peace allows Russia to keep 20 per cent of Ukraine. The West might console itself by refusing to recognise this annexation under international law, while in Russia, victory celebrations ensue. This chilling portrayal forces a reevaluation of what constitutes success in modern conflicts.
Beyond Ukraine: The Threat to NATO
Many in the West believe a war-weakened Russia would be unwilling or unable to challenge NATO. Masala's scenario challenges this complacency. He envisions Russia, a few years after the Ukraine war, attacking Narva in Estonia under the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians. This attack is deliberately small-scale, violating NATO territory while prompting debates in the US and Western Europe over whether to risk a world war for a city of 57,000 inhabitants. In this scenario, only Eastern European nations recognise the true peril, as the US and Western Europe hesitate, having failed to bolster their military capabilities post-Ukraine.
Masala notes: "Nowhere can it be conveyed to the population that even more should be spent on defence and that savings must therefore be made in social spending, pensions, or care. Only in the Central and Eastern European countries as well as in the Baltic states does the perception of threat remain consistently high."
The Perils of Western Appeasement
Masala criticises Western appeasement policies, which have had fatal consequences in the Ukraine war. He highlights Russia's effective use of nuclear threats to deter military aid to Ukraine, noting that such aid often arrives too late and in insufficient quantities. "The lesson Russia draws from these experiences is that nuclear threats work to deter the opposing side from taking certain measures," he explains. This strategy exploits Western fears, despite Russia's economic and military weaknesses compared to Europe.
Russia's strength, according to Masala, lies in the West's fear and weakness, amplified by apologists on the far right and far left who downplay dangers with pseudo-pacifist slogans. This assessment remains highly topical as geopolitical dynamics evolve.
A Frighteningly Realistic Outlook
Masala's scenario includes a cynical statement from a hypothetical French president from the Rassemblement National, who blames war-mongering countries for prolonging the Ukraine conflict and causing unnecessary deaths. This mirrors the hypocrisy of those who oppose aid and then blame the consequences. The scenario is not a doomsday fantasy but a realistic extrapolation of trends observed since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began 12 years ago, making it all the more alarming.
As Rainer Zitelmann, an author and historian, reflects, Masala's work serves as a crucial reminder of the need for vigilance and strengthened defences in an increasingly unstable world.
