Gulf Nations Sound Alarm Over Iran-Backed Militia Threat
Gulf countries have issued stark warnings about the escalating danger posed by Iran-backed militias and proxy armed groups across the region. These nations fear such groups could destabilize their governments and dramatically intensify the ongoing Middle East conflict.
Joint Condemnation and Security Concerns
In a unified statement this week, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan strongly condemned Iranian attacks on their territories. They highlighted strikes conducted directly from Iran as well as operations executed "through their proxies and armed factions they support in the region."
Kuwait revealed on Wednesday that it had successfully thwarted a plot targeting state leaders, arresting six suspects allegedly connected to Hezbollah, Iran's most powerful proxy organization. This incident underscores the immediate security challenges facing Gulf nations.
Historical Context and Current Tensions
For decades, Iran has strategically employed proxy militias as a cornerstone of its foreign and security policies. These groups serve to export Iran's revolutionary ideology, expand regional influence, and undermine adversary nations. Notable examples include Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, with additional influential Iran-backed militias operating in Iraq and Syria.
While relations between Iran and Gulf states like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar experienced a phase of improved cooperation and rapprochement in recent years, proxy groups largely remained inactive within the Gulf region itself. They avoided involvement in the internal turmoil witnessed in neighboring Iraq.
Escalating Threats and Regional Responses
Since the United States and Israel initiated bombing campaigns against Iran in late February, the primary focus of Iran's retaliation has shifted toward Gulf states. These countries maintain close ties with Washington and host numerous American military bases.
Beyond the barrage of thousands of missiles and drones launched directly from Iran, there has been a noticeable increase in internal incidents across the region linked to armed groups and militias associated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This trend has raised alarms that Iran might begin activating sleeper cells as instruments of warfare within Gulf territories.
Gulf nations are demonstrating clear efforts to suppress any Iranian proxy activity. In early March, Qatar announced the arrest of two cells comprising over ten individuals connected to the Iranian regime. Bahrain subsequently detained several people accused of espionage for Iran, while Kuwait reported this week that it had dismantled a significant Hezbollah-linked cell involved in plots against national security.
Regional Dynamics and Diplomatic Appeals
The joint Gulf statement on Thursday noted that several attacks had been carried out against them by Iran-backed militias typically operating from Iraq, where they have severely compromised the country's security. The statement urged: "We call on the Iraqi government to take the necessary measures to immediately halt the attacks launched by factions, militias, and armed groups from Iraqi territory toward neighbouring countries, in order to preserve brotherly relations and avoid further escalation."
The threat from these groups is particularly concerning for nations like Saudi Arabia, which has experienced violent attacks by the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah al-Hejaz, and Bahrain, which has long accused Iran of embedding proxy cells within its borders. Saudi Arabia continues to engage in conflict with another Iranian proxy, the Houthis, in Yemen, though the Houthis have stated they will remain outside the US-Israeli war with Iran.
Expert Analysis and Future Projections
Analysts note that while the presence and danger of Iranian proxy groups in the Gulf have not reached levels comparable to the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s—when militant cells attacked Kuwait and were active in Saudi Arabia—the threat persists and could grow if the conflict with Iran prolongs.
Bilal Saab, senior managing director of the Trends US thinktank and a former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration, explained: "If this war escalates, the worst-case scenario for the Gulf countries is Iran activating their sleeper cells and these Shia militia movements in the region. We haven't seen them act on the threat fully yet, but there are some signs of dormant cells becoming active and getting arrested in states like Kuwait and the UAE. We could see a whole lot more if things really escalate."
Saab emphasized that concerns about Iran's Revolutionary Guards activating these networks are a critical factor as Gulf countries contemplate more offensive responses to Iran's attacks, which could further provoke the Tehran regime. The paramount fear among Gulf leaders is a scenario mirroring Iraq, where Iran's proxy groups have become so entrenched that they function almost as a "state within a state."
"I think this is the number one existential threat for the Gulf states," Saab stated. "They are already dealing with the external threat of Iran's missiles and drones, but things really fall apart when they also have to fight an internal foe. Then they are faced with a battle on two fronts."
