Senior Military Leader Issues Stark Warning on UK Defence Capabilities
A former top military commander has delivered a sobering assessment of Britain's preparedness for a major conflict, warning that the country is dangerously ill-equipped for a long war and may not be ready for a decade. General Sir Richard Barrons, the ex-commander of the Joint Forces, issued his stark evaluation during the Long War Conference 2025, organised by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in Whitehall.
Sir Richard presented a damning report card on British military capabilities, assigning shockingly low scores out of ten for critical areas. He graded the UK's air and missile defence at just 'one out of 10', its civil force at another 'one out of 10', and its naval capacity to keep sea lanes open at a marginally better 'two out of 10'. The speed of military production received the same poor score of 'two out of 10'.
A Legacy of Neglect Since the Cold War
The general attributed this critical situation to decades of systematic underinvestment dating back to 1989 – the end of the Cold War. He stated that since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of Eastern European communist regimes, the UK has failed to invest in 'the things it needs for a long war', instead allowing these essential capabilities to 'wither'.
Sir Richard warned that British institutions continue to operate under a 'complacent peacetime assumption' that protracted wars are a thing of the past. This mindset, he argued, has created dangerous vulnerabilities across the nation's defence infrastructure.
He specifically highlighted the dire state of the UK's Integrated Air-and-Missile Defence system (IAMD), noting that both defensive and strike capabilities are 'thinly spread'. Creating comprehensive protection for critical national infrastructure like the nuclear deterrent or Whitehall would require an estimated £75 billion, of which only £1 billion is currently allocated.
Critical Shortfalls Across National Infrastructure
The general's alarming assessment extended beyond traditional military domains. He revealed that the Royal Navy is now too small to reliably guarantee freedom of navigation, while mobilisation systems have been so neglected that the state has lost track of its former reserves.
Perhaps most concerningly, Sir Richard stated that even the NHS, often hailed as world-class, is 'wholly unprepared' to handle wartime casualties on any meaningful scale. He described this as the country's 'greatest risk' that is finally receiving attention.
When asked to score Britain's overall preparedness for a long war out of a possible 220 points, Sir Richard awarded just 55 points – meaning the country is only 'about a quarter of the way there'.
The general emphasised that while addressing these industrial and financial gaps would be expensive, it represents 'the cheaper end of war' compared to the alternative. However, he noted that the necessary political and societal will to treat the Russian threat as real and accelerate spending simply isn't present.
Sir Richard warned that the UK is 'much further behind' than other NATO allies, including newer members like Sweden. He stated that while analysis suggests the country might have 'three to five years' to prepare, developments in Ukraine could make the threat feel 'sharper than that'.
In response to these criticisms, Luke Pollard, the Minister for Defence Readiness and Industry, told Metro that he welcomes the general's assessment. He expressed confidence in the armed forces' immediate capabilities while acknowledging the need to 'increase our deterring ability' daily. Pollard stated that implementing recommendations from the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) should demonstrate 'very clear progress indicator' within a year.
The government has endorsed all SDR recommendations, which promise the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War. However, General Barrons' warning comes at a critical moment, as potential peace talks regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine intensify the strategic stakes for Europe.
