UK's Final Economic Health Check Before Crucial Budget
This morning brings a crucial triple-bill of economic data, offering the final comprehensive health check on the UK economy before the government's upcoming budget. The figures will provide vital insights into the state of the nation's public finances, consumer confidence, and the ongoing cost of living pressures facing households.
Public Finances Under Scrutiny with £15bn Borrowing
The latest public sector finances data for October is expected to show that the government borrowed approximately £15 billion to cover the shortfall between tax income and public spending. Economists will be scrutinising these numbers closely to determine if the government's fiscal position has veered further off course compared to the official forecasts laid out back in March.
Retail Sales and Energy Price Cap Update
Simultaneously, new retail sales figures for October will indicate whether consumer spending was impacted by pre-budget caution. The City forecasts that sales were essentially flat compared to the previous month, though they are expected to show a 1.5% increase compared to the same period last year.
In a separate early morning announcement, the energy regulator Ofgem is set to confirm the new price cap for Great Britain. In a small relief for households, the cap is predicted to fall by around 1% from January, driven by lower wholesale gas prices. According to the forecaster Cornwall Insight, this would reduce the average annual dual-fuel bill for a typical household to £1,733, a decrease of £22.
Today's Key Economic Agenda
The data release schedule is packed, providing a full picture of economic performance:
- 7:00 AM GMT: UK public finances for October
- 7:00 AM GMT: UK retail sales for October
- 7:00 AM GMT: Ofgem sets the UK energy price cap for January-March 2026
- 8:00 AM GMT: Flash PMI economic data for the Eurozone
- 9:30 AM GMT: Flash PMI economic data for the UK
- 3:40 PM GMT: Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks on a panel in Zurich about ‘the future of the world’s leading currencies’
