Transport for London (TfL) has acknowledged that fare evasion could be costing the network up to £211 million per year, £21 million more than the officially reported figure of £190 million, according to a disclosure to the Tube Alerter website shared with the Local Democracy Reporting Service (LDRS).
Officials revealed that they routinely apply a 10 per cent reduction to the estimated value of revenue lost to fare evaders, citing the “limitations of available data.” This adjustment is made because staff derive estimates from intelligence-led activity at locations where fare evasion is more likely to occur, meaning the data “may not be fully representative of the network as a whole.”
Internal review confirms data limitations
An internal TfL review concluded: “The estimated value of fare evasion incorporates a 10 per cent reduction to reflect the medium confidence level associated with the overall assumptions.” The review added that this “recognises the limitations of the available data and the absence of a system that automatically matches passenger journeys with payments made.”
TfL currently reports an annual fare evasion rate of approximately 3.5 per cent, with transport chiefs aiming to reduce this to 1.5 per cent by the end of 2031. The £190 million figure, officials said, “represents an evidence-based assessment that takes these limitations into account.”
The internal confidence assessment and supporting assumptions have never been published separately, as TfL argued that publication of such “detailed information…could compromise TfL's ability to prevent, detect and respond to fare evasion, ultimately impacting the protection of public revenue.”
Political criticism mounts
Thomas Turrell, the transport spokesman for the City Hall Conservatives, told LDRS: “Sadiq Khan has lost control of fare evasion. Instead of showing leadership and gripping the issue, he has trapped TfL in a doom loop where underestimating data leads them to not take the issue seriously, causing more underestimation. It is wrong, it must stop, and Londoners' confidence must be restored that the Mayor is serious about tackling this crime that fare-paying commuters are expected to pick up the £200m bill for.”
Festus Akinbusoye, a former Police and Crime Commissioner who sits on Westminster City Council, added: “This is unfair for millions of Londoners who work hard and play by the rules. Instead of tackling fare evasion – which has doubled on the London Underground – TfL and the Mayor have been too busy fudging statistics to downplay the problem.”
TfL defends methodology
A TfL spokesperson responded: “Robust analysis of fare evasion on London's transport network is a vital tool in tackling it, and the estimated total cost of fare evasion is just one of many figures we produce to measure the scale of the issue. All figures produced are estimates that are calculated according to TfL's best interpretation of the data, in line with industry standards. The estimated cost of £190m represents an evidence-based assessment that takes limitations of the data used into account.”
TfL noted that newer technology, such as modern gateline infrastructure currently being tested in New York, could more accurately track passengers passing through barriers without paying in the future. The £211 million potential loss compares with the £168 million in estimated extra revenue raised from fare rises on buses and Tubes earlier this year.
