Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane has issued a stark warning, stating that relentless speculation surrounding the upcoming Autumn Budget is directly harming the UK's economic growth.
‘Without a Shadow of a Doubt’: The Growth Link
In a television interview on Monday 17 November 2025, Haldane told Sky News' Sophy Ridge there is “without a shadow of a doubt” a connection between the feverish pre-Budget chatter and the country's sluggish economic performance. He argued that the Budget speculation has dampened people’s willingness to spend, contributing directly to the weak growth figures reported the previous week.
The incoming president of the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) heavily criticised the government's budgetary process, describing it as “far too elongated, and far too leaky.” He expressed particular frustration with the “pretty much daily speculation about the next tax rise,” labelling this environment a problematic “half-way house.”
Business and Consumer Confidence Eroded
Haldane explained that this climate of uncertainty is having a profound chilling effect. Fearfulness about where the axe will fall is causing businesses and households to save rather than spend. This behaviour, he stated, has “caused businesses and consumers to hunker down,” which in turn “gums up the works of our economy” and takes the legs from growth.
His concerns are supported by the Bank of England's own November monetary policy report, which noted that part of the economic “softness” “may reflect uncertainty ahead of the upcoming Autumn Budget.” The report also pointed to weak growth in household consumption, with only a limited recovery expected soon.
A Call for Fundamental Reform
Following the government's high-profile U-turn on raising income tax ahead of the Budget on 26 November, Haldane warned against presenting a “smorgasbord of small measures.” Instead, he demanded “fundamental root and branch reform” to create a chance of reigniting economic growth.
He also proposed a specific fiscal discipline mechanism, suggesting that any tax increases should be matched pound-for-pound with spending cuts. This “one in, one out” system is something he believes the financial markets will ultimately require for stability.
Haldane's primary and most urgent recommendation remains clear: “First and foremost, we must stop that speculation.”
