A Budget of High Stakes and Hard Choices
On Wednesday, 26th November 2025, Chancellor Rachel Reeves stood to deliver a Budget awaited with intense speculation for over a year. The economic backdrop could hardly be more challenging. Since her first budget, the UK has seen unemployment rise every single month, while quarterly growth rates have dramatically slumped from 0.7% to 0.3%, and then to a meagre 0.1%.
The political pressure is immense. On the eve of the announcement, a bullish Reeves told Labour MPs, "I will not let them beat me", a clear message aimed at her media and Tory critics. She vowed to be "there next year and... back the year after that." The success of this defiant mantra now hinges on whether her Budget can achieve the near-impossible: confound critics, reassure the markets, and energise her own party.
The Good News: Pro-Business Moves and Omissions
Amid the pressure, there are some positive developments for businesses and taxpayers. The most significant pro-business measure reported is the decision to scrap stamp duty on new share listings for a period of up to three years following an IPO.
While the Treasury is typically wary of removing this reliable billion-pound revenue stream, this suspension for new listings builds a compelling case for its potential permanent abolition. Further encouraging signals are expected on infrastructure investment and planning reform.
Perhaps as important as what is included is what has been left out. The Chancellor has avoided several feared measures, meaning there will be no hikes to income tax, no assault on the LLP structure, and no new exit taxes.
The Bad and The Ugly: Tax Rises and Broken Promises
However, the bad news is stark and unavoidable. To fill the fiscal hole, the Budget will introduce around a dozen tax rises, impacting areas from salary sacrifice schemes to tourism and expensive properties.
The truly ugly element, however, is the persistence of fiscal drag, often described as the most pernicious tax of all. This stealth tax is now set to endure beyond the end of the current parliament, breaking a promise made by Chancellor Reeves just last year.
Compounding the grim outlook, the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) growth forecasts are anticipated to confirm the UK's broadly miserable economic trajectory. While the Chancellor may yet deliver a positive surprise, if the best outcome is that the Budget wasn't as bad as many feared, there will be little for the government or the public to celebrate.
For in-depth, considered analysis of the Budget's full impact, you can join the live show from the heart of the Stock Exchange at 2pm today on CityAM.com and its social channels.
