After spending billions of dollars, Donald Trump has reportedly made no further progress on nuclear issues than at the last round of talks in Geneva on 26 February before the war began. Critics, including some Republican hawks, are questioning the effectiveness of the administration's approach.
US Concessions and Iranian Gains
The United States has apparently agreed to unfreeze billions of Iranian assets for a regime now more hardline than before the conflict. In return, Iran will gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore commercial traffic to prewar levels, easing the global economic chokehold. However, the nuclear file remains contentious, with Iran insisting that talks cannot start with pre-commitments on its enriched uranium stockpile.
Analysis: A Costly Stalemate
Ben Rhodes, former Obama foreign policy adviser, stated: "Nothing was accomplished by Operation Epic Fury except putting the IRGC in charge of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz." Ali Vaez of the Crisis Group noted that hawks got wars, sanctions, and a blockade, yet still demand more pressure. Trita Parsi argued that Trump has merely returned to the original ceasefire position before his April blockade decision.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected claims that Iran agreed to ship enriched uranium abroad or cap enrichment for 10 years, saying such issues are only discussable within a 60-day timeframe. This suggests little movement from the Geneva talks.
Implications for Israel and Regional Stability
The abandonment of the military route, at least temporarily, is a blow to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in an election year. Israel is resisting aspects of the memorandum, particularly the Lebanon ceasefire framework, seeking language allowing military operations against "any threat." Iran rejects this, insisting on a sustainable ceasefire.
Governance of the Strait of Hormuz remains unsettled, with Iran and Oman discussing a Persian Gulf strait authority. Oman is unlikely to support tolls, and Iran may find its leverage diminishing over time.
