Trump in Tough Spot Over Iran's Hormuz Strait Closure
Donald Trump is learning first-hand about the perils of mission creep as the US-Israel war in Iran enters its eighth week, twice as long as the president predicted. The initial strikes to decapitate Iranian leadership were successful, but the political aftermath has been far from expected. Iran has survived and remains defiant, closing the Strait of Hormuz and blocking a fifth of global oil trade. The US has imposed a blockade, costing Iran an estimated $500 million daily, but negotiations have stalled, leaving the White House with difficult choices: endure a sustained economic war or risk military action to reopen the strait.
Analysts note that the conflict has transformed from a war of choice to a war of necessity, becoming a global economic crisis. US petrol prices have neared a four-year high ahead of crucial midterm elections. Trump is reportedly 'unsatisfied' with Iran's latest proposals, which demand payment for transit and refuse to negotiate on nuclear issues. The administration seeks to avoid a deal that would highlight US failures, especially compared to the JCPOA, which Trump withdrew from in 2018.
Military Options and Risks
One option is a military mission to open the strait, likely more difficult than operations in the 1980s. Former US Pacific Command head Dennis Blair suggests a convoy of 20 oil tankers with destroyers and aircraft, but casualties and damage are expected. A full assault on Iran's infrastructure or invasion remains unpalatable. Meanwhile, Iran's leadership vacuum, created by the strikes that killed Ali Khamenei, complicates negotiations. Trump admitted on social media that Iran is struggling to find a leader, with infighting between hardliners and moderates.
Criticism is growing on both left and right, especially as the war exacerbates the US affordability crisis. Matt Duss of the Center for International Policy warned that Trump and Netanyahu's belief in military force producing magical outcomes has been shown to be unfounded. The standoff continues with no clear resolution in sight.
