Thousands of people could avoid dying of heart disease by reducing ultra-processed foods (UPFs), according to a modelling study that suggests junk food may be driving up to a third of cases. The findings, published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine and presented at the International Congress on Obesity in Mexico, estimate that between 23% and 37% of heart disease cases and between 23% and 38% of heart disease deaths could be attributable to UPF consumption.
Study details and findings
Led by Virginie Hamel and Jean-Claude Moubarac from the Center for Public Health Research at Montreal University, the study focused on Canada. It estimated that thousands of deaths could be prevented across the country if the population cut its consumption of UPFs. While actual estimates may vary slightly, the researchers said similar results could be expected in other high-income countries. In the UK and US, more than half the average diet now consists of UPFs such as breakfast cereals, ready meals, protein bars, fizzy drinks and fast food. For some, especially younger people or those from disadvantaged areas, a diet comprising as much as 80% UPFs is typical.
Implications for public health
UPFs may account for “a substantial and potentially preventable” contributor to heart disease, the researchers said. “These findings reinforce the need for clinical and public health interventions aimed at reducing UPF intake as a key component of cardiovascular disease prevention.” They noted that UPFs dominate the food environment in Canada, making excessive consumption a widespread and largely involuntary phenomenon. “While public education and individual counselling remain important components of health promotion, their impact is limited without broader environmental and policy support. To drive meaningful change in dietary patterns, comprehensive structural measures are essential. These include regulations on food taxes, front-of-package labelling, marketing restrictions and reformulation targets aimed at improving food quality.”
Expert caution
However, some experts not involved with the study said there were several limitations to the results, and further research was required to prove UPFs increase the risk of heart disease. Prof Kevin McConway, an emeritus professor of applied statistics at the Open University, said: “This is an interesting attempt at modelling potential health effects of UPF consumption in one country (Canada) – but I really wouldn’t want to put much trust in the detailed estimates it presents.” Previous research has linked UPFs to serious harm in every major organ system of the human body, but the causal mechanisms remain debated.
