Andy Burnham, the prospective next prime minister, is under pressure from some quarters to abandon net zero targets, but doing so could be highly damaging on multiple fronts. The UK's net zero economy is booming, worth £100bn a year, outpacing other sectors and supporting higher-paying jobs than average, according to recent data.
Electoral Risks of Ditching Net Zero
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common, a non-profit research agency, stated: "Net zero is one of the few glues that unites Labour's coalition. There is limited electoral benefit to ditching it and much potential harm." Polls show more than 60% of people support net zero and climate action, crossing political divides, with about a third of Reform voters backing the target despite opposition from Nigel Farage and Richard Tice.
Labour lost votes to the strongly pro-climate Green party and Liberal Democrats in recent local elections. YouGov polling indicated that for every 2024 Labour voter who switched to Reform, about six voted instead for the Liberal Democrats or the Green party. Joe Dromey, general secretary of the Fabian Society, warned: "Quite a few people have been learning the wrong lessons from the very painful defeats in the local elections. Watering down Labour's bold contributions to green policy and net zero would do more harm than good."
Economic Benefits and Job Creation
Measures to tackle the climate crisis can also deliver economically. While unions like Unite and GMB, with members in the oil and gas sector, have called for an end to the ban on new North Sea drilling, most unions support net zero. Jobs in the North Sea have been in steady decline for over 15 years, with more than 90% of oil and gas already extracted. Direct jobs fell from 36,000 in 2013 to about 30,000 by 2024, with supply chain jobs dropping from 200,000 to 100,000.
Alasdair Johnstone from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit thinktank noted: "The clean tech revolution is already driving clean reindustrialisation in areas such as the Humber and North East. Thousands of small businesses and more than a million jobs are now dependent on the net zero economy." He added that consistency is crucial for investors: "Signals and consistency matter, so investors deciding where to put their money will be carefully listening to what emerges from Burnham's camp."
Burnham's Environmental Record
As mayor of Manchester, Burnham declared a target of carbon neutrality by 2038 and championed clean energy, electric buses, insulation, and nature projects. Robbie MacPherson, a Kennedy scholar at Harvard University and former head of the UK's all-party parliamentary group on climate, said: "This record shows he understands the importance of these issues and is willing to fight for them. As future leader of the Labour party he has the responsibility to bring to life the most ambitious climate and clean energy programme that any British government has been elected on."
Climate Impacts and Urgency
This week's record heatwave, the year's second, has highlighted the threat of the climate crisis. Schools closed, transport faced chaos, and productivity suffered, besides likely loss of life. European economies, including the UK, stand to lose $600bn from extreme heat by 2030, according to one estimate. Angharad Hopkinson, a political campaigner at Greenpeace UK, urged: "The only way off this hellish treadmill is to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. Our next prime minister needs to act on the evidence outside their window and stay the course on climate policies. The alternative is parched reservoirs, unaffordable food, shuttered hospitals and schools and wildly fluctuating bills each time a new oil war is kindled."
