The Conservatives have won a byelection in Scotland for the first time in 50 years, taking Aberdeen South from the Scottish National Party and handing leader Kemi Badenoch a significant achievement. Douglas Lumsden secured a 15% swing, giving the Tories a majority of 6,050, providing Badenoch with crucial evidence that her decision to abandon the party's commitment to net zero by 2050 is working.
Badenoch's Pro-Drilling Stance Proves Decisive
Speaking at a rally alongside Lumsden, Badenoch said: "What this means is that we have won that referendum on oil and gas. Aberdeen has sent a message to the Labour government and to the SNP that we will not be ignored, Aberdeen will not be ignored, the centre will not be ignored." The seat, a semi-rural commuter belt with two-car households and luxury villas heavily reliant on energy sector jobs, was always fertile ground for the Tories. The win came amid discontent over the SNP's handling of party finances, with former chief executive Peter Murrell pleading guilty to stealing £400,000 in party funds. However, the North Sea oil debate proved more decisive.
Diverging Positions on North Sea Drilling
The Tories argue for drilling as long as economically viable, while the SNP supports new drilling only if it does not violate climate commitments and calls for investment in renewables. Labour pledges no new North Sea licences, a policy championed by Energy Secretary Ed Miliband. Lumsden campaigned heavily on these differences, stating: "This result sends a clear message to Labour and the SNP: their war on North Sea oil and gas must end." Stephen Flynn, who triggered the byelection by stepping down as MP, called it "a tough night in Aberdeen that some will need to reflect on, quite heavily."
National Implications and Polling
Badenoch urged the Labour government to approve environmental applications for the Jackdaw and Rosebank mega-fields, gaining unlikely support from unions Unite and GMB. Sharon Graham, general secretary of Unite, said: "Until there is a credible plan for jobs the anti-North Sea policies must be consigned to the bin." Polling shows 48% of voters support new North Sea licences, with only 21% opposing, but 64% believe the 2050 net zero target should be met at least by 2050, if not earlier. Badenoch's stance may sharpen as Andy Burnham, if he succeeds Keir Starmer, could pick Miliband as chancellor, intensifying Tory attacks on Labour's net zero policies.
