The proposed third runway at Heathrow Airport cannot go ahead unless the aviation industry is required to reduce its climate emissions, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has warned. In advice requested by the Government on its draft Heathrow expansion national policy statement, the independent advisory body said there was "no credible pathway" for the expansion within the UK's legal climate targets under current policies for cutting aviation emissions.
The warning comes after Chancellor John Healey said the Government had "given the go-ahead" to the £33 billion proposal, which includes £1.5 billion to move the M25 and would increase the airport's capacity to 756,000 flights and 150 million passengers annually. However, Prime Minister Andy Burnham has previously expressed concerns over the expansion, and it has long been opposed by climate experts and Mayor of London Lord Sadiq Khan.
No credible plan for aviation emissions
The CCC stated that whether or not Heathrow expansion goes ahead, the UK "does not have a credible plan to reduce" aviation emissions, posing a serious challenge to meeting overall climate targets. The UK has a legal target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions overall to net zero by 2050, meaning cutting pollution as near to zero as possible and using solutions such as tree planting or technology to capture carbon from the atmosphere to offset the remainder.
Without global reductions in climate-warming emissions—most of which come from burning fossil fuels for power, homes, transport, and industry—global temperatures will continue to rise, with worsening impacts including extreme heatwaves, floods, drought, and rising seas.
Flight prices could rise by hundreds of pounds
For aviation, policies to cut emissions include more efficient aircraft and airspace management, sustainable aviation fuels, paying for projects that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and reducing growth in demand for flights. The CCC says the airline sector should pay for the cost of these policies, which would likely be passed onto travellers and see flight prices rise significantly over the next few decades, helping to manage growth in demand.
The committee estimates that policies to cut aviation emissions to net zero would add as much as £150 to a return flight to Alicante, Spain, by 2050, and £400 to a return flight to New York. However, it said action now could ensure the costs are phased in slowly to avoid sudden jumps in price.
Frequent flyer tax and public support
The advisers noted that almost half of people do not fly abroad in any given year, while a third of all flights abroad are taken by only 5% of people who take five or more international flights in a year. Committee officials pointed to citizens panels it had organised, which found people thought the aviation sector should be responsible for the cost of dealing with its emissions, not adding it to general taxation and charging those who do not fly.
While policy on how the costs should be passed onto passengers would be a matter for Government, the committee pointed to public support for ensuring ordinary families should not be priced out of the occasional holiday abroad. This could mean use of a frequent flyer tax for those who take multiple flights in a year, while there could also be carve-outs for flights from Britain to Northern Ireland or the Shetland Islands.
Climate Change Committee chairman Nigel Topping said emissions from flying had doubled in the UK since 1990, even as overall climate pollution had halved, and Heathrow was responsible for around half of the sector's emissions. By 2050, aviation emissions will dwarf all other parts of the economy, and Heathrow expansion alone would produce more emissions than any other sector.
Mr Topping said: "Every tonne of greenhouse gas emissions contributes to climate change and its impacts, of which we've seen stark evidence with the extreme weather this summer. Expansion cannot mean more climate pollution." He added: "Ultimately, the polluter pays principle must apply. If aviation is to grow, it must take responsibility for the emissions it creates. Expansion can only be compatible with the UK's climate commitments if the sector is required to manage and pay for the full cost of reaching net zero."
Government urged to legislate before approval
Before granting the go-ahead for any proposed Heathrow expansion, the UK should legislate policies that will require the aviation industry to cut or offset 100% of its emissions. The committee also urged that the revised "jet zero" strategy, planned for 2027, needs to set out a credible and robust set of policies and implementation plan for getting aviation to net zero.
In response, the airline industry called for the transition to net zero to be affordable, claiming airlines were already investing billions in new aircraft, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and airspace upgrades, and had a plan to deliver it. Tim Alderslade, chief executive of industry body Airlines UK, said: "The answer is affordable SAF, already cutting emissions since the mandate began, airspace reform by 2035 for more direct routes and scaled-up carbon removals. Both SAF and greenhouse gas removals are proven technically viable, as the CCC itself admits. We should focus on delivering them, not pricing ordinary people out of the joys of travel."
A Department for Transport spokesperson said: "Any expansion proposal would need to align with our net-zero targets. We're investing £219 million in sustainable aviation fuel production and a further £43 million in cleaner technologies to support greener aviation, while expansion could deliver around £40 billion to the economy and support up to 60,000 local jobs. We will carefully consider CCC's advice along with all responses received to the Heathrow expansion consultation."
