Retail sales across the United Kingdom experienced an unexpected decline during October, as cautious consumers held back on spending while anticipating Black Friday discounts and awaiting the government's upcoming budget announcement.
Official Figures Reveal Widespread Decline
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), retail sales fell by 1.1% month-on-month in October, marking the first contraction since May and contradicting economist predictions of flat growth. The ONS subsequently revised September's figures upward from 0.5% to 0.7%, while August's growth was adjusted down from 0.6% to 0.5%.
The downturn affected multiple sectors, with clothing, footwear, and textile stores suffering the most significant blow. This category recorded a substantial 3.3% monthly sales decrease, a sharp reversal from the strong summer performance driven by warm weather and major sporting events.
Sector-by-Sector Breakdown
Supermarket sales continued their downward trend with a 1.1% decrease in October, representing the second consecutive monthly decline. The online retail sector also struggled, posting a 1.7% drop compared to September, while fuel sales decreased by 2.4% over the same period.
Industry analysts identified two primary factors behind the surprising downturn. Many retailers reported that consumers are deliberately delaying non-essential purchases in anticipation of Black Friday sales events. Simultaneously, uncertainty surrounding Chancellor Rachel Reeves's upcoming budget presentation has created consumer jitters, further dampening spending confidence.
Broader Economic Context and Outlook
Rajeev Shaunak, head of consumer at accountancy and advisory firm MHA, commented on the situation: "The uncertainty surrounding what the chancellor's budget next week will mean for individuals is only further dampening consumer confidence and spending intentions."
He added that the Christmas trading period will be critical for retailers, with early indicators suggesting continued sluggish consumer demand creating challenging conditions for the sector.
Despite some monthly fluctuations, the broader picture reveals that overall retail sales remain 3.3% below their pre-pandemic level from February 2020, highlighting the ongoing challenges facing the UK retail industry as it navigates changing consumer behaviour and economic uncertainty.
