Trump issues ultimatum on Iran talks
Donald Trump has warned that the US will return to “very strong military action” against Iran if diplomatic efforts do not produce a rapid resolution to the Middle East crisis. In an interview with Axios on Monday, the US president said: “We are in very deep talks with Iran. If they don’t work out, we will go back to very strong military action.” Asked how long he would allow talks to proceed, he replied: “Not much time. Either it goes fast or not at all.”
Iran denies direct negotiations
Tehran has denied engaging in direct talks with Washington to end the conflict that began in late February with US-Israeli strikes. Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei stated: “Mediators may convey messages from the American side to us regarding current developments in the region. But at present we are not engaged in any negotiations with the United States.”
Oman and Iran near agreement on Strait of Hormuz
Oman and Iran have moved closer to an agreement in principle on managing the Strait of Hormuz, but remain deadlocked over Tehran’s demand that all ships pay a transit fee or toll to a consortium led by the two countries. Technical talks were held in Tehran on Friday and Saturday, with progress backed by China, Qatar, and Pakistan, reportedly influencing the US decision to pause attacks on Iran.
US pauses attacks amid munitions concerns
The US paused its bombing campaign after nearly two weeks, following warnings from senior officials about dwindling munitions stockpiles and the impact of Iranian reprisals on bases in Kuwait and Jordan. Admiral Brad Cooper, the top US commander in the Middle East, recommended stopping the campaign around the strait as it had reached the limit of its effectiveness.
Iran argues southern route violates ceasefire
The US described its attacks as a response to Iranian breaches of a June memorandum of understanding, including attempts to prevent commercial shipping from using a southern route overseen by the US. Iran argues the southern route violates a ceasefire agreement that left it in sole charge of reopening the strait. Baqaei denied that the pause in US fighting constituted an informal ceasefire.
Oman proposes voluntary fee model
Oman has been urging Tehran since May to adopt a voluntary fee system compliant with the law of the sea, similar to the Malacca Strait model where users contribute to a fund for environmental and safety services. Oman argues a similar entity could be set up in the Strait of Hormuz with UN and International Maritime Organization approval. IMO Secretary General Arsenio Dominguez told the Guardian the Malacca model is worth considering.
Iran’s environment department drafts own plan
Iran’s Department of Environment has drafted a plan requiring compensation for pollution from over 50,000 ships and oil tankers passing through the strait annually. Under the plan, Iran would collect fees proportional to ship type, cargo volume, navigation history, and pollution record. Iranian media, including Khabaronline, have shown interest in the Malacca model, calling it a “win-win situation for Iran.”
Talks unrelated to US, says Iran
Baqaei described the Oman talks as useful and constructive but unrelated to the US. “The goal is for Iran and Oman, as two coastal states, to develop mechanisms to ensure safe shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while respecting the sovereign rights of the two coastal states and also preserving Iran’s security and national interests,” he said. Oman faces pressure from US opposition to tolls but may accept clearly delineated fees for specific services.
Shipping declines sharply amid blockade
The US continues to encourage commercial shipping to test Iran’s blockade. Iranian officials reported six vessels with transponders off attempted to use the southern route on Sunday; one was fired upon, and the others turned back. The US has reimposed a blockade of Iranian oil exports and ended sanctions waivers. The United Nations Office for Project Services said transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to an average of about five ships per day over the past week, compared with nearly 130 daily before the war.
