Despite the highly anticipated launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 this year, a new report from S&P Global Market Intelligence predicts that global console sales will decline by 19.5% in 2026, reaching just 33.9 million units. This marks a significant drop from the 42.1 million units sold in 2025, a year that was boosted by the release of the Nintendo Switch 2.
Forecast details and trends
The analytics firm expects the downward trend to continue into 2027, with sales falling to 27.1 million units. However, a recovery is anticipated from 2028 onward, climbing back to 37.4 million units by 2030. According to S&P analyst Neil Barbour, this recovery hinges on easing component shortages that would allow Sony and Microsoft to launch next-generation consoles at price points between $600 and $800.
Barbour told GamesIndustry.biz: 'A critical assumption underlying our forecast’s recovery period later in the decade is that the component crisis eases sufficiently by 2028 to allow Sony and Microsoft to bring next generation hardware to market at price points in the $600 to $800 range.'
Platform-specific predictions
Nintendo's Switch 2 is expected to sell 17.1 million units in 2026, matching the second-year performance of the Wii and original Switch. In contrast, PlayStation 5 sales are projected to decline to 13.2 million units in 2026, down from 17.1 million in 2025. The Xbox Series X/S, which shipped only 3.2 million units last year, is forecast to drop further to 2.5 million units in 2026, followed by 'a rapid wind-down toward zero thereafter.'
Why sales are declining
S&P attributes the slump to high console prices, ongoing memory shortages limiting stock, and a lack of major 'tentpole releases.' The rising cost of components is driven by demand from AI data centres, and some electronics companies warn the memory crisis could persist well into 2030, with prices unlikely to return to previous levels.
Despite the launch of GTA 6, widely considered the most anticipated game of all time, the report does not foresee it having a major effect on console sales. Similarly, Sony's Marvel's Wolverine and Microsoft's Gears Of War: E-Day are not expected to reverse the trend.
Next-generation outlook
Both Sony and Microsoft are expected to release their next consoles—the PlayStation 6 and Project Helix—within the next couple of years. However, enthusiasm among hardcore gamers is low due to Sony's controversial plans to ditch physical games, Xbox's recent layoffs, and expectations of high prices with minimal graphical improvements. The PS5 Pro already costs over £600 in the UK, and chatter suggests the next consoles could exceed £1,000. Sony has stated it will not sell the PlayStation 6 at a 'significant loss.'
Nintendo may fare better with the Switch 2 remaining more affordable, though its future lineup remains unclear. The company has shown little of this year's Zelda: Ocarina Of Time remake, and Pokémon Winds and Waves is not expected until late 2027.
