Cars in Europe have grown larger every year since 2000, with average increases of 1.2cm in length, 0.5cm in height, and 0.5cm in width annually, according to a new analysis by Transport & Environment (T&E). The campaign group warns that this 'relentless carspreading' poses serious risks to road safety, urban space, and the environment.
Impact on Road Safety
The study projects that if current trends continue, an extra 2,600 road users could die in crashes each year by 2040, including 79 children. This is based on research from Belgium showing that a 10cm increase in bonnet height raises the risk of death for vulnerable road users by 27%, and US research indicating an 81% higher fatality risk for children.
Lucien Mathieu, lead author of the report, described the trend as 'dramatic' and said it raises a critical question: 'Where do we stop? The linear trend is so clear.'
Loss of Parking Spaces
The analysis also found that cities could lose 8.5-14% of on-street parking by 2040 if the trend goes unchecked. London and Berlin are each expected to lose about 100,000 parking spaces. This 'car bloat' frustrates drivers and forces larger vehicles to occupy two parking bays or overflow into space for other road users.
Environmental and Energy Consequences
Compared with a 'right-sizing' scenario that returns car sizes to 2015 levels, the current trend would require an extra 100 million barrels of oil imports and 22.5 terawatt hours of electricity annually by 2040. Brian Caulfield, a transport researcher at Trinity College Dublin, noted that this added energy demand 'could be equivalent to the output of an extra 1,500 offshore wind turbines.'
The findings do not account for additional deaths from air pollution or climate breakdown caused by increased fossil fuel use.
Recommendations
T&E recommends capping bonnet heights and car widths, adjusting taxes to discourage larger vehicle purchases, and tightening vehicle standards to improve visibility of young children from the driver's seat. Hannah Budnitz, a researcher at the University of Oxford, called the projections 'probably conservative' as they exclude vehicle weight, which increases resource consumption and road wear.
The report comes as exclusive research shared with the Guardian shows that potential SUV buyers remain undeterred by warnings about pedestrian fatalities.
