Commuters across England have received welcome news: for the first time in three decades, regulated rail fares will be frozen in 2026. However, this national reprieve comes with a major caveation for those travelling within the capital, as London's Tube and bus fares are set on a different path.
A National Freeze with a London-Sized Loophole
The government announced the landmark freeze on regulated fares, a move intended to ‘ease the pressure on household finances’ for those travelling to work, school, or visiting loved ones. This will be a significant relief for many, particularly regular commuters coming into London from hubs like Milton Keynes, Reading, and Bath.
Yet, this financial relief stops at the Greater London border. The pricing for Transport for London (TfL) services, including the Tube, buses, and the Docklands Light Railway (DLR), is controlled by the Mayor of London and City Hall, not by central government. As of now, the Mayor has not revealed any plans to mirror the national freeze, leaving Londoners in a state of uncertainty.
Why London Fares Are Likely to Rise
The outlook for London's transport costs is not promising. City Hall has stated it is currently working to understand the implications of the national cap. There are significant concerns that the freeze on regulated fares could shift the burden of covering rising operational costs onto unregulated fares, which include many of the tickets used within London.
Compounding this issue is a pre-existing financial directive from the government. Back in June 2025, as part of a £2.2bn funding settlement, the government instructed TfL to increase fares by the Retail Price Index (RPI) rate of inflation plus one percent every year until 2030.
Based on current projections, this could mean a fare increase of approximately 5.8 percent in March 2026. Furthermore, if Tube fares rise, it is highly probable that the cost of Travelcards, which offer unlimited travel across various zones, will also see a corresponding jump.
Political Backlash and the Wait for Confirmation
The potential for a fare hike exclusively in the capital has sparked political criticism. Hina Bokhari, the leader of the Liberal Democrat group on the London Assembly, did not mince words, telling the Standard: ‘If ministers freeze fares everywhere except London, that isn't policy, it's a punishment beating.’
She added, ‘Londoners already face higher living costs and deeper levels of poverty, yet ministers appear to want to single out London for inflation-busting hikes. This isn't levelling the country up, it's levelling the capital down.’
For now, Londoners must play a waiting game. TfL typically announces its fare changes for the coming year in December, so a definitive answer on the cost of commuting in 2026 is expected before the year's end.
