The road to the 2027 Men's Rugby World Cup will take a decisive shape this Wednesday as the tournament draw is conducted in Sydney. This pivotal event will outline the potential journey to the Webb Ellis Cup for the 24 competing nations, introducing a significantly expanded format for the first time in over two decades.
A Bigger Tournament: The New 24-Team Structure
Commencing on 1 October 2027, the competition in Australia will mark a major evolution from recent World Cups. The field expands from 20 to 24 teams, and for the first time, a round of 16 will be introduced. Since 2003, the tournament has featured 20 nations, progressing directly from the pool stage to quarter-finals. The 2027 edition will host a total of 52 matches, an increase from the 48 played in France 2023.
The new structure moves away from four pools of five teams to six pools of four. While the eventual champion will still need to win seven matches to lift the trophy, they will play one fewer pool game before entering the knockout phase via the new last-16 round. Qualification for the knockouts will see the top two teams from each of the six pools advance, joined by the four best third-placed teams.
The Draw Mechanics and Banding System
The draw, taking place at 9am UK time on Wednesday, will sort teams into pools based on a banding system determined by world rankings. As hosts, Australia are automatically placed in Pool A and will feature in the opening match at Perth Stadium. Their final ranking position was sealed after a winless Autumn Nations series in Europe, confirming their place in Band 2 alongside Scotland, Fiji, Italy, Wales, and Japan.
This means the Wallabies are destined to face a heavyweight from Band 1 in their pool, which consists of reigning back-to-back champions South Africa, New Zealand, England, Ireland, France, and Argentina. Ireland have slipped from second to fourth in the rankings this year, while England's impressive 11-match winning streak has propelled them from seventh to third.
Scotland's hopes of reaching Band 1 were dashed by a recent defeat to Argentina. Wales, despite losing three of their four autumn tests—including a heavy 73-0 loss to South Africa—clung to Band 2 status thanks to a crucial late 24-23 victory over Japan in Cardiff.
Dark Horses and Compelling Subplots
Band 3 comprises Georgia, Uruguay, Spain, the USA, Chile, and Tonga. Georgia, ranked 13th, will be the team to avoid, while Uruguay (14th) are renowned as tough opponents. Chile return after their debut in 2023.
Band 4 features Samoa, Portugal, Romania, debutants Hong Kong China, Zimbabwe, and Canada. One intriguing narrative is the possibility of Samoa, who narrowly qualified, being drawn against Steve Borthwick's England. This could set the stage for centre Manu Tuilagi, who will become eligible for Samoa in early 2027, to face his former team. Portugal's return is also highly anticipated after they captivated fans in 2023 with a dramatic win over Fiji and a draw with Georgia.
Knockout Complexity and Favourites' Status
The new format introduces a nuanced knockout draw. The winners of Pools A, B, C, and D will face a third-place qualifier in the round of 16. Conversely, the winners of Pools E and F will meet a runner-up from another pool. World Rugby states this apparent imbalance is addressed in the quarter-finals, where the Pool A winner could meet the Pool B winner if both advance.
Despite the draw, South Africa's dominant form as winners of the last two tournaments makes them strong favourites for an unprecedented third consecutive title. An improving England under Steve Borthwick will also be confident of a deep run. While much can change before October 2027, the draw provides the essential framework for every team's campaign planning.
