The Wallabies face a critical test against France in Saturday's Nations Championship match in Brisbane, needing to transform honourable defeats into victories. Australia's 31-33 loss to Ireland last weekend, despite dominating most statistical categories, highlighted a recurring lack of composure and discipline that has plagued the team.
Wallabies' Recent Struggles
With only one win in their last nine Tests and the threat of a home World Cup humiliation in 14 months, Australia cannot afford another gallant loss. They have lost six straight Tests for the first time since 2015-16, and in 2025, they suffered 10 Test defeats in a single season for the first time in 127 years. Against world No. 4 France, the challenge is immense.
Team Changes and Injuries
Playmaker Carter Gordon is out with a calf strain, ruling him out of this Test and next week's against Italy. Coach Joe Schmidt has called up debutant Declan Meredith, a 27-year-old late bloomer from the ACT Brumbies, to face the formidable French halfback pairing of Maxime Lucu and Matthieu Jalibert. No. 8 Tom Hooper is also out with a shoulder injury, with Nick Champion de Crespigny named as reserve. Tom Wright returns at fullback, shifting Jock Campbell to the bench.
Statistical Dominance but Losses
Against Ireland, Australia won virtually every metric: they carried 455 metres to 379, made 141 carries to 126, beat 31 defenders to 18, made 10 clean breaks to four, missed fewer tackles (18 to 31), and won more turnovers. They even stole four Irish lineouts. However, they conceded 12 penalties, 11 in their own half, and received a yellow card. Kicking woes saw Gordon miss two conversions and Ben Donaldson two penalties, squandering 10 points.
History of Narrow Losses
In the last five years, the Wallabies have lost eight Tests by three points or fewer, compared to Ireland (twice), France (three), and New Zealand (once). They have won only three Tests by that margin, while New Zealand has four, South Africa five, and France six. This indicates a lack of a killer instinct and a reliable clutch kicker.
Kicking Concerns
France boasts Thomas Ramos, their all-time points scorer. Australia may turn to Ryan Lonergan, who had a 90% kick success rate in Super Rugby, but he was injured during the Ireland match. Captain Harry Wilson has previously opted for risky last-gasp plays, but against Ireland, his kick decisions backfired.
Path to Victory
Australia's five tries against Ireland earned them two consolation points in the Nations Championship. To beat France, they need fast feet, cool heads, and a hard edge. Wearing Indigenous jerseys for NAIDOC Week, much depends on Len Ikitau and Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii breaking the French defence to feed speedsters Dylan Pietsch, Max Jorgensen, and Tom Wright on the edges.
