Tottenham's Survival Battle: Predicted Table and Run-In Analysis vs Rivals
Tottenham Hotspur now find themselves embroiled in a fierce relegation battle as they embark on a new, albeit temporary, era under interim manager Igor Tudor. Tudor has taken the reins until the end of the season following the dismissal of Thomas Frank, with his primary objective clear: to secure Tottenham's place in the Premier League. Despite holding a five-point cushion over West Ham United, who occupy the last safe position, the Hammers are in strong form, intensifying the fight for survival. This article delves into the current standings, OPTA's predicted final table, and a detailed comparison of the run-ins for Tottenham and their rivals to evaluate their prospects of remaining in the top flight.
The Current Relegation Picture
Excluding Wolverhampton Wanderers, who are already adrift and not part of the battle, the relegation zone is tightly contested. Leeds United sit in 15th place with 30 points and a goal difference of -9. Tottenham Hotspur are just behind in 16th with 29 points and a goal difference of -1. Nottingham Forest hold 17th position with 27 points and a goal difference of -13. West Ham United are in 18th with 24 points and a goal difference of -17, while Burnley trail in 19th with 18 points and a goal difference of -23.
OPTA's Predicted Final Table
According to OPTA's advanced prediction model, which utilizes multiple simulations to forecast the most likely outcomes, the final table paints a nuanced picture. Leeds United are projected to finish 15th with 44.71 points and a relegation probability of 3.74%. Tottenham Hotspur are expected to land in 16th with 44.51 points and a relegation probability of 3.67%. Nottingham Forest are predicted to take 17th with 40.45 points and a higher relegation probability of 19.47%. West Ham United are forecasted to end up 18th with 35.98 points and a significant relegation probability of 72.04%, and Burnley are likely to finish 19th with 20.41 points and a near-certain relegation probability of 98.56%.
Comparing the Run-Ins
The final fixtures for each team involved in the survival fight are crucial. Burnley are excluded from this analysis as they are almost certain to be relegated alongside Wolves.
Leeds United's Run-In: Aston Villa (A), Manchester City (H), Sunderland (H), Crystal Palace (A), Brentford (H), Manchester United (A), Wolves (H), AFC Bournemouth (A), Burnley (H), Tottenham (A), Brighton (H), West Ham (A).
Tottenham's Run-In: Arsenal (H), Fulham (A), Crystal Palace (H), Liverpool (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Sunderland (A), Brighton (H), Wolves (A), Aston Villa (A), Leeds United (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H).
Nottingham Forest's Run-In: Liverpool (H), Brighton (A), Manchester City (A), Fulham (H), Tottenham (A), Aston Villa (H), Burnley (H), Sunderland (A), Chelsea (A), Newcastle United (H), Manchester United (A), AFC Bournemouth (H).
West Ham's Run-In: AFC Bournemouth (H), Liverpool (A), Fulham (A), Manchester City (H), Aston Villa (A), Wolves (H), Crystal Palace (A), Everton (H), Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle United (A), Leeds United (H).
Where Tottenham Can Secure Points
Tottenham require approximately 11 points to reach the traditional safety mark of 40 points, but aiming for 12 points provides a more secure buffer. Analyzing their run-in, several matches present clear opportunities to accumulate these points. Key home games against Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, Wolves, and Leeds United are must-win fixtures, especially as they are directly competing with some of these clubs. Additionally, away matches at Fulham and home games against Brighton and Everton offer chances to gather crucial points.
On paper, even considering Tottenham's recent poor form, there is no justification for failing to secure at least 12 points, with a potential for 15-18 points. Spurs should comfortably achieve safety based on their fixture list, and failure to do so would raise serious questions about the team's performance and management.
